The U.S. presidential election closely follows the 45th anniversary of the 1979 U.S. Embassy hostage crisis, an event that still symbolizes high tension between US and Iran for many observers.
International sanctions by US
Iran remains deeply involved in the Middle East’s ongoing conflicts, with its allies — militant groups and the “Axis of Resistance” fighters — suffering setbacks as Israel intensifies its offensive in Gaza targeting Hamas, while escalating hostilities with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran itself appears to be taking stock of the damage from last Saturday’s Israeli strikes, which were in response to two Iranian ballistic missile attacks.
The Iranian currency, the rial, remains near historic lows against the dollar, largely due to international sanctions tied to Tehran’s uranium enrichment program, which has approached levels close to those required for weaponization.
Which candidate might be better for Iran?
Despite mandatory hijab laws, some Iranian women continue to openly defy the headscarf requirement, a consequence of the mass protests following Mahsa Amini’s death in 2022. This defiance contributes to a sense of resignation among some residents in Tehran as Americans prepare to vote between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Opinions differ on which candidate might be better for Iran.
Observers point out that every U.S. president since the 1979 revolution has held a similar stance on Iran, and he doubted this would change. Both Harris and Trump have presented strict positions on Iran, raising concerns among Iranians.
Nuclear deal
In 2018, Trump unilaterally exited the nuclear deal with Tehran, setting off a series of conflicts across the Middle East well before the October 7, 2023, Hamas assault on Israel. Trump has also faced Iranian threats over his 2020 decision to authorize the drone strike that killed top Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad. In contrast, Harris asserted in a September debate that she would ensure Israel’s right to self-defense, especially in relation to threats posed by Iran and its affiliates.
The Biden administration attempted indirect nuclear negotiations with Iran, yielding limited outcomes, though a prisoner exchange in September 2023 did secure freedom for five detained Americans.
Iran to pursue deal to alleviate Western sanctions
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, who assumed office after his hard-line predecessor Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash, has committed to pursuing a deal to alleviate Western sanctions. Iranian officials argue that it is possible to negotiate nuclear issues separately from Middle Eastern conflicts, even as the U.S. accuses Iran of election interference, which Tehran denies.
Fatemeh Mohajerani, Pezeshkian’s spokesperson, emphasized Tehran’s hope for a shift in U.S. policies that respects “national sovereignty” and avoids “provocative actions,” as seen in recent years.
Future U.S.-Iran relations
Analysts suggest that future U.S.-Iran talks may be fraught with difficulties regardless of the election’s outcome. Ali Soufi, in a pro-reform newspaper, likened the negotiations to a “war of attrition,” while Saeed Nourmohammadi expressed doubts about their effectiveness.
Ultimately, any decision hinges on Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, now 85, who has overseen eight U.S. administrations. “Khamenei knows how to handle the next one,” remarked Abbas Ghasemi, a retired teacher.
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