Israel, one of the United States’ closest allies and an influential lobbying force in American politics, is significantly impacting the atmosphere around Tuesday’s elections.
Limited differences between Trump and Harris
Over the past year, Israeli strikes, backed by American-made weaponry, have targeted Gaza and, more recently, Lebanon. Many are now anxiously hoping for a cease-fire in Gaza and a de-escalation of tensions throughout the region.
A former Israeli foreign minister suggested that there would be limited differences in Middle East policy between the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, and the Republican candidate, Donald Trump. However, he noted that their contrasts would likely emerge in domestic policy and their views on European security, especially regarding the Ukraine conflict.
Who does Israel prefer: Trump or Harris?
While Harris and Trump differ in their perspectives on Palestine, the issue may be more about the level of political effort each candidate would put into influencing Israel’s right-wing government. The former minister indicated that Netanyahu’s administration may favor Trump, seeing him as likely to offer Israel greater leeway in its policy choices.
Trump’s staunch support for Israel aligns with the right-wing views within Israeli politics, prioritizing Israeli sovereignty and de-emphasizing Palestinian statehood, including through his recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. According to the former minister, Netanyahu appears to be waiting for Trump’s potential return to office, assuming this would ease pressure on Israel.
Relying solely on Israel in Middle East
Though Trump’s tenure demonstrated a strong willingness to back Israeli interests, Trump’s patience may have limits, especially if heightened regional conflicts risk involving U.S. forces. Trump is generally reluctant to commit American troops to conflict, and may aim to curtail U.S. involvement if tensions with Iran or broader regional instability escalate.
In such scenarios, Trump may seek greater regional support from allies like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, rather than relying solely on Israel.
A Harris presidency, on the other hand, may bring more resistance toward Israel’s government than the current administration under Joe Biden. Harris, according to Ben-Ami, does not fully align with Zionist policies and may be less tolerant of Netanyahu’s unpredictability, though this might not directly shift policy.
U.S. priorities in the Middle East
While both Trump and Harris have expressed commitment to Israel’s security, neither candidate seems to offer a comprehensive solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Experts explain that the Middle East no longer ranks as a primary interest for the U.S., suggesting this is why neither candidate is likely to take substantial action on this issue.
While there may be initial enthusiasm for expanding agreements like the Abraham Accords between Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain, these efforts could eventually fade.
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