The unexpected return of Donald Trump to the presidency after a four-year hiatus is set to reshape global geopolitics. With a foreign policy grounded in America First principles, Trump’s approach will likely prioritize national interests over traditional alliances, creating both opportunities and challenges for world leaders
India’s Strong Alliance with Trump: A Win for Modi
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to benefit from Trump’s re-election. The two leaders have long shared a warm personal and professional relationship, with Trump praising Modi’s leadership style. This camaraderie, coupled with shared interests in security, trade, and defense, is expected to continue. Trump’s more lenient stance on India’s close ties with Russia, particularly regarding energy and defense, aligns well with Modi’s diplomatic strategy.
Trump’s approach could also shield India from external pressures, such as those posed by Canada regarding the alleged killings of dissidents. As tensions rise between India and its Western partners, Trump’s presidency may offer Modi the diplomatic flexibility to maintain strong ties with Moscow without fearing severe repercussions from the US.
Saudi Arabia and Israel: Stronger Ties in Trump’s World
Saudi Arabia: Under Trump, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) may find a more predictable and mutually beneficial partner in Washington. Trump is expected to work towards formalizing security agreements with Saudi Arabia, a nation eager to reduce its vulnerability to regional threats, particularly from Iran. Trump’s success in brokering the Abraham Accords, which saw Arab nations normalize relations with Israel, could now be leveraged to include Saudi Arabia in this peace framework, strengthening US-Saudi relations.
Israel: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has often clashed with President Biden, but with Trump back in power, he can expect unwavering support. Trump’s historically strong backing of Israel, including military aid and opposition to Palestinian statehood, aligns with Netanyahu’s goals. Trump’s more hands-off approach to Palestinian suffering, a point of tension under Biden, will likely further cement this relationship.
Ukraine Faces Uncertainty: Trump’s ‘America First’ Doctrine
While Trump’s foreign policy will likely focus on reducing US military engagement abroad, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky faces a new challenge. Trump’s emphasis on “America First” may lead to a reduction in US support for Ukraine in its ongoing conflict with Russia. Trump has openly suggested that he could end the war within 24 hours by striking a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This hard-nosed approach could require Ukraine to make concessions in peace talks, undermining Western support for Zelensky’s efforts.
The Middle East and Beyond: Shifting Alliances and New Challenges
Turkey: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may view Trump’s return as an opportunity for a more cooperative relationship. The two leaders had a cordial rapport during Trump’s first term, with Erdogan even calling Trump “my friend.” Given Trump’s focus on trade and his relatively hands-off approach to NATO, Erdogan is likely to find common ground, though Turkey’s growing ties with China may complicate its balancing act between Washington and Beijing.
North Korea: Kim Jong Un may look to Trump’s re-election as a way to loosen the US military presence in the region. Despite the lack of tangible progress in their previous talks, Trump’s personal rapport with the North Korean leader could pave the way for renewed diplomacy or even further disengagement from military commitments in the region.
China: Chinese President Xi Jinping will be wary of Trump’s re-election, particularly concerning the threat of tariffs and trade restrictions. Trump has often expressed frustration with China’s trade surplus with the US, and the potential for another round of trade wars could severely impact China’s economy. However, there are some mitigating factors. Trump’s interest in aligning with Elon Musk, who has strong ties with China, may create space for more balanced trade talks.
Global Markets and Potential Winners and Losers
Trump’s policies, including his hard stance on trade, military alliances, and international diplomacy, will create a divide among global leaders. Some nations will benefit from Trump’s approach, while others will face new obstacles.
Argentina: Argentine President Javier Milei, a staunch Trump supporter, may see a more favorable relationship with the US under the new administration. Milei has expressed hopes that Trump will help Argentina secure better terms with international financial institutions, especially the IMF. Argentina’s growing ties with Musk, who is exploring investment opportunities, may also influence US policy towards the country.
Germany and France: European leaders, especially in Germany, may struggle with Trump’s re-election. Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who inherits a legacy of strained US-Germany relations from the Merkel years, will have to navigate Trump’s disdain for Germany’s trade practices, particularly its car industry. In France, President Emmanuel Macron’s experience dealing with Trump during his first term will give him a distinct advantage, but Macron may find himself caught in the crossfire of Trump’s trade disputes, particularly over tech taxes.
Mexico and Britain: Both countries will face challenges in Trump’s second term. For Mexico, Trump’s approach to trade, immigration, and border security remains a significant concern. Britain’s Labour leader, Keir Starmer, has had a contentious relationship with Trump, making it harder for the UK to negotiate with the US under his leadership.
Trump’s Foreign Policy: Allies, Adversaries, and the Unpredictable Future
Trump’s re-election is expected to bring a return to his “America First” foreign policy, with an emphasis on reshaping international alliances, revising trade deals, and challenging the status quo of multilateral organizations. Some world leaders, like Modi, MBS, and Netanyahu, stand to benefit, while others, like Zelensky, Macron, and Xi, will face new diplomatic and economic challenges. The coming years will see a recalibration of global power dynamics, with Trump at the helm, ready to reshape the world order in line with his vision.
