On November 5, voters in the United States will head to the polls to choose their next president.
What began as a repeat of the 2020 race took a surprising turn in July when President Joe Biden announced he would end his campaign, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris. Now, the central question is whether America will see its first woman president or a return to office for Donald Trump.
Who Is Leading in the National Polls?
Since joining the race in late July, Harris has held a slight edge over Trump in national polling averages, and she still leads. As of the latest rounded figures, Harris had a brief surge in support during her campaign’s initial weeks, widening her lead to nearly four points by late August.
The polls stayed relatively consistent through September and early October, but recent weeks have shown a tightening in the numbers. The chart below illustrates this, with trend lines displaying the overall averages and individual dots indicating separate poll results for each candidate.
While national polls give an overview of a candidate’s popularity nationwide, they don’t predict the election outcome due to the electoral college system used in the U.S. In this system, each state is assigned a number of electoral votes based on its population size, with 538 votes total. A candidate needs at least 270 electoral votes to secure victory.
Though there are 50 states, most tend to consistently vote for the same party, leaving only a few critical “swing states” where the race could go either way. These states will ultimately decide the outcome.
Who Is Leading in Swing State Polls?
Currently, the leads in swing states are extremely close, making it difficult to determine who is truly ahead based on polling averages.
Polls can indicate general public opinion but are not intended to forecast election results with precision down to a fraction of a percentage point. Each individual poll contributing to these averages carries a margin of error, typically around three to four percentage points, meaning the candidates could actually be performing slightly better or worse than these numbers suggest.
Here’s a complete timeline of what went down between Trump and Harris in the presidential race:
2023: Early Speculations and Campaign Launches
April 2023 – Kamala Harris Signals Intent: Amid speculation about Joe Biden’s decision not to run for re-election, Vice President Kamala Harris signals her willingness to step into the race should he decide not to seek a second term.
May 2023 – Trump Announces Candidacy: Former President Donald Trump officially launches his campaign, focusing on economic issues, border security, and reversing Biden-era policies. This move sets him as the Republican frontrunner early on.
June 2023 – Kamala Harris Formally Enters Race: After Biden confirms he will not run, Harris officially launches her campaign. Her platform emphasizes civil rights, economic equality, and healthcare reform.
2023: The First Debates and Policy Clashes
August 2023 – Harris Proposes Climate Action Plan: Harris introduces an aggressive climate action strategy, promising major investments in clean energy. Trump criticizes the plan, calling it “job-killing” and “unrealistic.”
September 2023 – Trump Highlights Economic Achievements: Trump shifts focus to his previous tenure, emphasizing job growth and a strong stock market. He claims Harris’s policies would hinder economic recovery.
October 2023 – Campaign Rally Showdown: Both candidates hold major rallies in swing states like Pennsylvania and Arizona, where Trump promises to restore “America First” policies, while Harris speaks on income inequality and healthcare.
2024: The Heated Primary Season
February 2024 – Super Tuesday Results: Harris secures her spot as the Democratic nominee with decisive wins in the primaries. Trump, though initially challenged, solidifies his place as the Republican candidate after defeating contenders in key states.
March 2024 – Healthcare Debate Intensifies: Harris campaigns heavily on expanding affordable healthcare. Trump counters by promoting market-based solutions and accuses Harris of pushing toward “socialized medicine.”
Spring 2024: Domestic Issues and Foreign Policy Disputes
April 2024 – Immigration Policy Clash: Harris proposes an immigration reform package with a pathway to citizenship. Trump, meanwhile, reiterates his strong stance on border security, calling Harris’s plan “weak.”
May 2024 – Middle East Tensions Highlight Foreign Policy Differences: Amid escalating conflict in the Middle East, Trump criticizes Harris for what he terms a “soft stance” on U.S. allies. Harris argues for a balanced approach, emphasizing diplomacy and humanitarian support.
June 2024 – Harris Emphasizes Voting Rights: Harris focuses on voting rights and fair elections, promising to strengthen protections. Trump accuses her of wanting to change election laws to favor Democrats.
Summer 2024: Heated Exchanges and Big Policy Announcements
July 2024 – The National Convention Season: Both candidates officially accept their nominations. Harris emphasizes unity and inclusivity, while Trump campaigns on restoring the “American Dream.”
August 2024 – Harris Pushes for Police Reform: Following a high-profile incident involving police violence, Harris advocates for comprehensive police reform, which Trump opposes, emphasizing “law and order.”
August 2024 – Trump Introduces Tax-Cut Proposal: Trump proposes a series of tax cuts, claiming they will spur economic growth. Harris criticizes the cuts, arguing they primarily benefit the wealthy.
Fall 2024: Debates and Final Campaign Efforts
September 2024 – First Presidential Debate: The two candidates meet for their first debate, sparring over key issues like healthcare, the economy, and foreign policy. The debate is highly polarized, with strong performances by both.
October 2024 – Campaigning in Swing States Intensifies: Both campaigns focus on battleground states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Florida. Trump targets rural voters and emphasizes economic recovery, while Harris appeals to urban centers with messages on social justice.
October 2024 – Final Debate on National Security: In the last debate, national security takes center stage. Harris advocates for diplomatic strategies, while Trump insists on a strong military presence abroad.
November 2024: Election Day and Results
November 5, 2024 – Election Day: Americans cast their votes after one of the most watched and hotly contested campaigns in recent history. Independent and third-party candidates are also expected to play a role in the final outcome.
November 2024 – Results Pending: With the final vote count close in key states, the country awaits the outcome, likely to have lasting impacts on U.S. policies for years to come.
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