On November 5, Americans will cast their votes to decide their next president. While past elections have sometimes yielded results within hours of polls closing, this year’s tight race might extend the wait for an outcome.
When Could We Know the Result of the 2024 Election?
In past elections, a winner was occasionally declared late on election night or by the early hours of the following day. This time, due to the close competition between Democrat Kamala Harris, the current vice president, and Republican Donald Trump, the former president, news organizations may take longer to project a winner.
Narrow outcomes could trigger recounts. For instance, in Pennsylvania, a mandatory recount occurs if the margin between the leading candidates is within 0.5%. In 2020, Biden won there by just over 1.1%.
There could also be legal disputes, with more than 100 pre-election lawsuits already filed, many by Republicans, concerning voter eligibility and registration processes. Delays could also stem from any potential disruptions at polling places.
However, certain measures, such as faster ballot counting in states like Michigan and fewer mail-in ballots compared to the 2020 election during the COVID-19 pandemic, might help speed up results.
When Were Previous Presidential Elections Called?
The 2020 election on November 3 saw Joe Biden’s victory declared only on Saturday, November 7, once Pennsylvania’s outcome became clearer.
By contrast, Trump’s 2016 win was announced before 03:00 EST (08:00 GMT) the day after the election, and Obama’s 2012 re-election was confirmed on election night itself.
A significant exception was the 2000 contest between George W. Bush and Al Gore. Held on November 7, it led to a prolonged dispute over Florida’s tight result and wasn’t resolved until December 12, when the U.S. Supreme Court ended the recount, confirming Bush as president.
Key States to Watch in 2024
Polls across the U.S. start closing at 18:00 EST (23:00 GMT) and finish by 01:00 EST (06:00 GMT) early Wednesday. Seven swing states are pivotal: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
19:00 EST (00:00 GMT): Polls close in Georgia, among other states, with early results expected from less competitive areas like Kentucky.
19:30 EST (00:30 GMT): Polls close in states including North Carolina.
20:00 EST (01:00 GMT): Polls close in Pennsylvania and other states, including part of Michigan.
21:00 EST (02:00 GMT): Polls close in key states like Arizona and Wisconsin.
22:00 EST (03:00 GMT): Nevada and other states close their polls.
Vote Counting Process
Votes are typically counted in stages: first, ballots cast in person on election day, followed by early and mail-in votes, disputed ballots, and ballots from overseas and military voters. The canvassing process involves verifying, processing, and counting each ballot. This includes ensuring consistency in voter numbers and examining ballots for damage.
Counting can involve electronic scanners or, when necessary, manual verification. States have stringent rules for overseeing canvassing and permitting observer participation.
What If the Election Results Are Contested?
Once all valid votes are counted, the electoral college comes into play. States allocate electoral votes to the candidate with the most popular support, with results confirmed on December 17. Congress meets on January 6 to count these votes and formally declare the winner.
Following the 2020 election, Trump did not concede and encouraged his supporters to disrupt Congress’ certification process. This led to the January 6 Capitol riot. Despite this, Vice President Mike Pence did not challenge the certified results. Although reforms have clarified that the vice president cannot reject electoral votes, experts suggest that efforts to delay certification could still occur at state levels.
Presidential Inauguration
The next president will be inaugurated on January 20, 2025, at the U.S. Capitol, marking the 60th such ceremony. The new leader will take an oath to uphold the Constitution and deliver an inaugural address.
