U.S. Election 2024: What A Trump Win Could Mean For India’s IT, Energy, And Trade?

As the U.S. election date approaches, investors worldwide are closely monitoring the outcome of the vote in the world’s oldest democracy. The results could also impact India’s economy, particularly if the leadership changes its approach to economic policies affecting the country.

According to a report by PhillipCapital, a Trump victory could lead to stricter work visa policies due to his firm stance on immigration, posing challenges for Indian IT firms.

However, the report noted that “prima facie, impact seems harsher if Trump wins, given his anti-immigration stance. However, Indian IT companies have tried to de-risk this challenge by hiring more locals in onsite markets, relying on subcontractors, and opening more near-shore delivery centres.”

In the automobile sector, the report suggests that demand for electric vehicle (EV) components from Indian suppliers may decrease in the short term due to a potential reduction in EV incentives under Trump.

However, this could also prompt a shift towards hybrid vehicles, stabilizing demand in the medium term. Additionally, Trump’s infrastructure and manufacturing spending plans, including boosting Class 8 trucks, would likely benefit Indian auto component manufacturers.

In the energy sector, Trump’s preference for fossil fuels over renewables could lead to increased U.S. crude oil and natural gas production, driving global energy prices down. Lower oil prices would benefit Indian refiners and consumers, while increased natural gas production could present long-term contracting opportunities for Indian utilities.

Both Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris have shown support for a robust Indo-Pacific strategy, viewing India as a crucial counterbalance to China. While Harris is expected to emphasize deeper defense cooperation, Trump’s approach is likely to be more transactional, focusing on arms sales and strategic gains.

The report said, “Harris is expected to maintain the Biden administration’s emphasis on deeper defence cooperation, while Trump’s approach may be more transactional, centred on arms sales and strategic gains. Also, Trump’s tough stance on China would align with India’s strategic interests in countering China, potentially accelerating defence partnerships.”

Regarding the commodities and metals sector, Trump’s infrastructure spending plans, which could include projects like constructing a border wall and protecting domestic industries, are expected to boost demand for metals. His focus on fossil fuels would likely drive increased capital expenditure in oil and gas, benefiting Indian metals and pipe manufacturing firms.

Additionally, the report highlighted that Trump’s anticipated push for higher tariffs on Chinese goods could create opportunities for Indian sectors such as textiles, auto components, and consumer electronics, enhancing their competitiveness in the U.S. market.
This shift could also encourage foreign direct investment (FDI) flows towards India as companies seek alternatives to China for manufacturing and investment.

The U.S. elections consistently draw significant attention due to the country’s economic size and geopolitical power. With the current Democratic president’s four-year term ending, the elections are scheduled for November 5th, and the results will likely have far-reaching implications for India and its economy.

(Inputs from ANI)

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