Ukraine on Edge as Trump Pledges to End Wars in Victory Speech

Ukrainians met the news of Donald Trump’s likely return to the U.S. presidency with a mixture of concern and quiet determination. Trump’s pledge to “stop wars” has left Kyiv unsure about future support from the United States, which has been Ukraine’s most significant ally since Russia’s invasion nearly three years ago. Trump reiterated his belief that he could end the war in Ukraine in a single day and expressed intentions to cut back on U.S. aid, raising doubts in Kyiv about the stability of future American support.

As Ukraine braces for a renewed Russian offensive, supported by thousands of North Korean troops, officials in Kyiv are increasingly aware that they may need to depend on other Western allies for consistent aid.

Cautious Optimism from President Zelenskyy Amidst Uncertainty

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in a pragmatic social media post, struck a balanced tone as he reflected on his past meeting with Trump, which took place in September. He recalled a “great meeting” and praised Trump’s approach to global issues through “peace through strength.” Yet Zelenskyy’s comment, “We rely on continued strong bipartisan support for Ukraine in the United States,” revealed underlying concerns about the sustainability of aid from Washington if Trump adopts an isolationist stance.

Despite Kyiv’s repeated assertions during the U.S. election season that it has strong bipartisan support in the American government, the prospect of a Trump administration has clearly introduced apprehension within Ukrainian leadership.

Past Republican Block on Aid Raises Concerns for Future Assistance

For Ukrainians, Trump’s campaign rhetoric echoes the Republican Party’s recent actions, which temporarily halted U.S. aid to Ukraine from October 2023 through April 2024. This nine-month gap forced Kyiv to dip deeply into its wartime budget and weakened its military capabilities, costing Ukraine some of its most seasoned soldiers. As Ukrainians watched Trump’s Wednesday speech, their anticipation mixed with a sense of foreboding about how this shift could impact the future of Ukraine’s resistance.

Economist Tymofiy Mylovanov, president of the Kyiv School of Economics, captured the sentiment of resilience tinged with apprehension in his Facebook post: “We’ll have to live in Trump’s world now. I am very skeptical that the war will end in 24 hours, as he promised. But we definitely won’t get bored.”

Trump’s Complex Relationship with Russia: A Source of Anxiety in Kyiv

The unpredictability Trump displayed during his first term has resurfaced as a concern for Ukrainians, many of whom remain unsure about what a second Trump presidency could mean. Trump has spoken positively of his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and at times criticized Zelenskyy as “the greatest salesman in history.” Yet Trump has also claimed that he warned Putin of harsh U.S. retaliation, stating that he told Putin the U.S. would “bomb Moscow if he tried to attack Ukraine.”

For Ukrainians, these mixed messages add to the uncertainty about Trump’s intentions. On one hand, his apparent respect for Putin raises questions about his stance on Russia; on the other, his bold rhetoric suggests he could take unpredictable actions in response to any future Russian aggression.

A Need for Pragmatism: How Kyiv Might Adjust to a Trump Presidency

Oleksandr Merezhko, who heads the foreign relations committee in the Ukrainian parliament, took a measured view, suggesting that a Trump presidency might necessitate a shift in Kyiv’s approach to securing support from Washington. Merezhko noted that Trump is fundamentally a businessman who operates based on “costs and benefits.”

“I do not think that his presidency will be bad for Ukraine — maybe difficult, challenging, but not necessarily bad,” Merezhko told POLITICO. He acknowledged that Trump’s pragmatic style might mean that Ukraine will need to demonstrate the advantages of continued U.S. backing to the Trump administration.

A Future with New Allies and Adjusted Strategies

The potential shift in U.S. foreign policy under Trump’s administration could push Ukraine to lean more heavily on allies within the European Union and NATO for support. Kyiv may also need to build stronger regional alliances and explore innovative avenues for military and economic aid. Even with bipartisan support in Congress, any hesitation from the White House on Ukraine could complicate future aid packages, making Zelenskyy’s diplomatic efforts and Kyiv’s partnerships with other Western nations all the more crucial.

The mood in Kyiv on Wednesday was defined by grim resolve, with Ukrainians displaying both resilience and readiness to adapt, regardless of Trump’s stated intent to “stop wars” and scale back U.S. involvement abroad. While Trump’s approach could shift dynamics in unexpected ways, Ukrainian officials remain determined to navigate the challenges of a world where they may have to rely on an evolving coalition of allies to fend off continued Russian aggression.