In the pivotal battlegrounds of Arizona and Nevada, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are almost neck and neck in their pursuit of the White House, according to recent CNN polls conducted by SSRS. With many voters already having cast their ballots, the pool of undecided voters continues to dwindle.
Polling Results Reflect Close Competition
The latest poll shows Harris with 48% support among likely voters in Arizona, just ahead of Trump at 47%. Conversely, in Nevada, Trump leads with 48% compared to Harris’s 47%. These narrow margins fall within the polls’ margins of sampling error, indicating that neither candidate has a definitive advantage in either state.
The surveys reveal that voters’ perspectives are largely solidified regarding who would be better equipped to handle major issues. However, neither candidate has convincingly established themselves as the preferred choice for a critical mass of voters. There is only a slim preference among voters regarding which candidate is perceived as more empathetic, shares their vision, or prioritizes the country’s interests over personal gain.
Shifting Dynamics in Arizona
The poll from Nevada suggests little change since late August, but Arizona’s results indicate a favorable shift for Harris, particularly among core Democratic demographics. Her support has notably risen among women, Latino voters, and younger voters. Currently, women favor Harris by 16 points, while men lean toward Trump by 14 points.
In Nevada, Harris’s advantage among women is narrower, with 51% supporting her compared to Trump’s 46%. The dynamics shift further with White voters, as Trump leads by 15 points among White men and by 12 points among White women. Among Hispanic likely voters, support is nearly even, with Harris at 48% and Trump at 47%. Harris does, however, enjoy a substantial lead among voters under 35, attracting 53% compared to Trump’s 39%.
Senate Races and Abortion Rights on the Ballot
In the Senate races, Democratic candidates appear to be faring well. In Arizona, Rep. Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake with 51% to 43%, while in Nevada, Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen is ahead of Republican challenger Sam Brown, garnering 50% support among likely voters.
Additionally, a measure aimed at establishing a fundamental right to abortion in Arizona enjoys broad support, with 60% of likely voters indicating they would vote in favor, against 39% opposed.
Voter Confidence and Election Integrity
Both Arizona and Nevada have seen robust participation in early and mail-in voting, with 55% of likely voters in Arizona and 42% in Nevada reporting they have already cast their ballots. Interestingly, while more registered Republicans have voted so far, this still results in a Harris advantage among those who have already voted in Arizona. Conversely, early voters in Nevada favor Trump, with 52% supporting him against Harris’s 46%.
Despite intensive late-campaign efforts from both candidates, over 90% of likely voters in both states claim they have firmly decided who they will support, with only 8% remaining persuadable. When weighing the importance of candidates’ issue positions versus leadership traits, slightly more than half of voters prioritize issue stances.
This trend reveals familiar divides: likely voters trust Trump more on immigration (by 14 points in Arizona, 15 in Nevada), the economy (by 11 points in Arizona, 9 in Nevada), and foreign policy (by 8 points in Arizona, 7 in Nevada). Conversely, Harris is perceived as more trustworthy on abortion and reproductive rights, leading by 16 points in Arizona and 21 points in Nevada.
Voters in both states express confidence in the electoral process, with 81% of likely voters in Nevada and 76% in Arizona feeling at least somewhat confident that ballots will be accurately counted. This sentiment has notably increased since August, largely among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.
(Includes inputs from online sources)
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