How The Next U.S. President Will Shape The Future Of U.S.-India Relations

The results of the ongoing U.S. elections are poised to have a big impact on the world and could possibly shape the future of India as well, especially in trade, defense, and technology. On one hand, Trump might focus on strengthening security ties, particularly to counter Chinese influence, which in turn would align with India’s strategic aspirations.

Harris, on the other hand, would prioritize democratic values and climate collaboration, which could strengthen the partnership in green energy.

As the U.S. election approaches, both the candidates—Kamala Harris and Donald Trump—have strong personal and political ties to India, but they represent different policies and approaches that will impact U.S.-India relations. Whether Trump or Harris wins, India will face both opportunities and challenges in its relationship with the United States.

Kamala Harris: A Connection to India Through Heritage and Policy

Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee for president, holds a unique personal connection to India through her mother, who hails from Tamil Nadu. This heritage has earned her a strong connection to the Indian-American community, although her campaign has not heavily focused on India. Her background remains a point of pride for many voters in both the U.S. and India.

Foreign Policy: Continuity with Biden’s Approach

Under a Harris administration, India can expect a continuation of President Joe Biden’s policies, particularly in terms of strengthening the Quad—the strategic partnership between the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia. Biden’s administration has worked actively to counter China’s rise in the Indo-Pacific, elevating the Quad to a leaders’ level summit shortly after taking office. This strategy is likely to persist under Harris, with India positioned as a key player in maintaining a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific.”

While Biden has been committed to countering China, he has also emphasized that the U.S. is not seeking to completely “decouple” from China. This means that while the U.S. will continue to work closely with India in countering China’s growing influence, economic and trade ties with China are unlikely to be severed entirely. This could create challenges for India, particularly as it navigates ongoing border tensions with China.

Immigration and People-to-People Ties

Immigration remains a sensitive issue in the U.S., and under Harris’s leadership, India may continue to face pressure on illegal immigration. Harris has been outspoken about the need for stronger border controls, which contrasts with Trump’s rhetoric during his first term. Harris’s stance may lead to a more moderate, yet continued pushback against illegal immigration, even though she has not been as focused on this issue as her Republican counterparts.

In the past year, around 1,100 Indian nationals were deported from the U.S. for illegal immigration, a situation that New Delhi raised with Washington. Although India does not officially support illegal immigration, large-scale deportations could become a politically sensitive issue for the Indian government. Under Harris, this issue is likely to continue, but her approach may be less confrontational compared to Trump’s.

Human Rights and Democracy

On the issue of human rights and democracy, Harris has often advocated for the defense of democratic institutions, both in the U.S. and globally. In 2021, during an interaction with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, she emphasized the importance of upholding democratic values in both countries. This stance was interpreted as a subtle nudge on India’s internal issues, especially concerning Kashmir and the protection of democratic freedoms. Harris’s administration is likely to continue such diplomatic engagements, emphasizing human rights while seeking to resolve differences behind closed doors.

Donald Trump: A Pragmatic and Confrontational Approach Toward India

Donald Trump’s relationship with India has been marked by a strong “America First” agenda and a personal rapport with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. While his policies on trade, tariffs, and China may pose challenges, Trump’s presidency provided a stable, transactional approach to India’s security and economic concerns. His relationship with India was built on personal ties with Modi, and this is likely to continue if he returns to office.

China and Strategic Rivalry

Trump’s foreign policy marked a significant shift in the U.S. approach to China. For the first time, Trump explicitly framed China as a strategic threat, a designation that had major implications for India. India, which shares a long and disputed border with China, has long been wary of Beijing’s aggressive behavior, particularly after the 1962 Sino-Indian war and more recently during border standoffs.

During Trump’s first term, the U.S. supported India in its territorial disputes with China and promoted a coalition of like-minded nations to counter Beijing’s expansionist policies. The formation of the Quad in 2017, under Trump’s leadership, was seen as a significant step in strengthening India’s strategic position in the region. Trump’s administration also elevated India’s status by granting it Strategic Trade Authorization-1 (STA-1) status, which allowed India license-free access to a broad range of U.S. military and dual-use technologies.

Trade and Tariffs: Tensions Over Protectionism

One of the key issues under a second Trump presidency would likely be trade. Trump has long criticized India’s tariff barriers and market access, which were points of contention during his first term. Trump’s “America First” policy emphasized the need for reciprocal trade terms, and he pressured India to reduce tariffs on U.S. goods such as Harley-Davidson motorcycles. In a second term, this issue would likely come to the forefront once again, potentially straining relations between the two countries.

India could find itself in the crossfire of Trump’s protectionist policies, as the U.S. pushes for better trade terms with countries that impose high tariffs on American goods. While China will likely bear the brunt of these measures, India could also face renewed pressure on trade issues, particularly in sectors like agriculture and technology.

Immigration: A Persistent Friction

Immigration has been a major point of friction between Trump’s administration and India. During his first term, Trump imposed restrictions on student visas, work visas, and permanent residency (Green Cards), which had a significant impact on many Indians seeking to live and work in the U.S. This issue could become even more contentious in a second term, especially given the growing number of undocumented Indian immigrants crossing the U.S. southern border. In 2023 alone, 97,000 undocumented Indian immigrants entered the U.S., many crossing from Mexico and Canada.

This surge in illegal immigration could exacerbate tensions between the two countries. While Trump’s administration was tough on immigration in general, the increase in illegal Indian immigrants could become a more prominent issue under a second Trump presidency, further complicating U.S.-India relations.

Human Rights: A Pragmatic, Hands-Off Approach

Trump’s approach to human rights and democracy was notably more hands-off compared to Harris. Throughout his presidency, Trump generally refrained from commenting on the internal affairs of other countries, including India. This non-interference was appreciated by the Indian government, which values its autonomy on internal matters. Trump refrained from publicly criticizing India’s controversial actions, such as the abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir or the Pulwama terror attack.

This pragmatic, hands-off approach allowed India to manage its internal issues without external pressure. However, it is important to note that conservatives and Republicans also care about issues like religious freedom, and Trump’s administration may face increasing domestic pressure to address these concerns in India.

What Experts Have to Say About the Outcome

In an exclusive conversation with NewsX, analysts provided thorough insights into what the U.S. elections could mean for India. The discussion featured prominent experts such as Shekhar Narasimhan, Chairman and Founder of the AAPI Victory Fund; Cleo Paskal, Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the FDD; Purnima Nath, Leader of the Republican Party; and Dr. Sampath Shivangi, President of the IAFPE, who shared their perspectives on how the election results would impact U.S.-India ties.

Shekhar Narasimhan began by laying out his perspective on the U.S. election and its potential impact on India-U.S. relations. He spoke about tariffs and their impact on trade, saying, “Tariffs are a blunt instrument—they need to be used to ensure a level playing field. But the way Trump talks about them, bluntly, he thinks it’s a solution to all problems. This would actually increase costs in the U.S. and create inflation, and we need to be very careful in the use of such instruments.” He also added, “India-U.S. relations are a bipartisan issue. Both Democrats and Republicans view this as the most important strategic relationship the U.S. has, so I do not see any negativity in either candidate winning. But when it comes to foreign policy, Trump is quite unpredictable, and I would prefer Kamala Harris because I think we would have more predictable politics.”

Moving ahead with the conversation Cleo Paskal, weighed in on the diplomatic aspect, noting, “Under Trump, we saw the resurrection of the Quad and the signing of key defense agreements with India, as well as the renaming of the Pacific Command to the Indo-Pacific Command. We saw India being viewed as a major regional player by the Trump administration, which we haven’t seen as much under the Biden administration. There was the unfortunate non-visit of President Biden, which could have been a key moment for the Quad. We haven’t seen the same emphasis on India as a strategic partner under Biden.”

Purnima Nath also shared her views on strategic and diplomatic ties, noting, “No doubt that the Trump presidency in 2016 was much better for the regular working-class people of this country, whether it’s on domestic policies like inflation, crime, and wages, or on foreign policy and the avoidance of starting new wars. When speaking about Kamala Harris, she said, ‘How many times has she actually visited India? She pushed the Kashmir agenda on the Hindu people, and the Biden-Kamala administration has also started sanctioning Indian companies.'”

Overall, the analysts suggest that whether Harris or Trump wins, U.S.-India relations will face new challenges and opportunities depending on the direction of the next administration’s foreign and domestic policies.

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