North Carolina remains a pivotal battleground, with Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump locked in a tight race. Most polling data shows a neck-and-neck contest, with Trump holding a slight edge in the final surveys. North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes could be a game-changer in the 2024 election, and the outcome here is critical for both candidates.
Tight Polling with a Slim Trump Lead
Recent polling averages show Trump narrowly ahead of Harris in North Carolina, with most surveys placing him just one percentage point above the Vice President. In the final Emerson College/The Hill poll, Trump leads Harris 49%-48%, a difference within the margin of error of 3.3 points. Conversely, a New York Times/Siena poll gives Harris a slight 48%-46% lead, while other major surveys, like Morning Consult and Fox News, show Trump with a marginal advantage, often fluctuating within a narrow range.
Despite this volatility, the polls consistently reflect a highly competitive race. A Cooperative Election Study poll, for example, shows Trump leading Harris 50%-48%, while a Marist poll also gives him a 50%-48% edge.
North Carolina’s Shifting Demographics
Historically, North Carolina has been a Republican stronghold, voting for only one Democratic presidential candidate since 1980: Barack Obama in 2008. However, the state has grown more competitive in recent years, largely due to demographic shifts. The Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill area, known for its academic and tech industries, has seen rapid population growth, particularly among highly educated voters who tend to lean Democratic. According to the Brookings Institution, this area’s expansion has made North Carolina one of the fastest-growing regions in the country.
These changes have translated into a more diverse and Democratic-leaning electorate, which is now reflected in the state’s increasing competitiveness in national elections.
What’s at Stake: North Carolina’s Electoral Votes
North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes are among the most significant in the country, ranking eighth overall. Given its growing Democratic leanings, a victory here could boost Harris’s chances of securing the White House. Political analyst Nate Silver’s Voter Power Index suggests that if Harris wins North Carolina, she would have nearly a 90% chance of clinching the presidency. Conversely, if Trump carries the state, his path to the White House would remain strong, with a roughly 80% chance of winning the Electoral College.
The Impact of Local Scandals on Trump’s Campaign
A potential wild card in the race is the scandal surrounding North Carolina’s GOP gubernatorial candidate, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson. Trump endorsed Robinson, but following reports about Robinson’s past involvement in racist and derogatory comments, his candidacy has faced backlash. These revelations have damaged Robinson’s standing against Democratic candidate Josh Stein, with some recent polls showing Robinson trailing by as much as 19 points.
However, these down-ballot issues have not significantly impacted Trump’s campaign in the state. Historical trends suggest that scandals affecting state-level candidates rarely sway presidential election results, so Trump’s position in North Carolina remains largely unchanged despite Robinson’s controversies.
The Road Ahead: What to Watch for on Election Night
North Carolina’s relatively early polling close time, at 7:30 p.m. ET, means it could be one of the first states to report results on Election Night. Roughly 90% of ballots are expected to be counted by midnight, making the state’s outcome an early indicator of national trends. If Harris pulls off a win here, it could signal a strong night for Democrats, while a Trump victory would indicate a favorable path for the GOP in the broader race. As the final ballots are counted, all eyes will be on North Carolina’s crucial electoral votes.
(Includes inputs from online sources.)
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