As voters head to the polls on Election Day, political experts are focusing on several key counties that may offer early hints about who will win the presidency. Known as “bellwether counties,” these areas have historically predicted the national election outcome. With the contest between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris shaping up to be a close race, a handful of counties in Pennsylvania and Washington could provide insights into which way the country is leaning.
The Significance of Bellwether Counties
Bellwether counties are those that closely align with national election trends, often reflecting the political landscape of the entire country. According to Matthew Bergbower, a political science professor at Indiana State University, these counties are like a “microcosm of the nation” in terms of political preferences. Historically, bellwether counties have provided reliable indicators of the election’s direction, as they often side with the eventual winner. Bergbower’s own county, Vigo County in Indiana, broke from its usual pattern by supporting Trump in 2020 but had previously aligned with the winning candidate in every election since 1952.
One of the most notable bellwether counties this year is Clallam County in Washington state. Known for voting for the winning presidential candidate in every election since 1980, Clallam County holds a unique status as the “last bellwether county” in the United States. This year, local experts say the county appears to be as divided as ever, with both Republicans and Democrats confident about their chances.
Local Perspectives from Clallam County
In Clallam County, opinions on the election outcome vary widely. Pam Blakeman, chair of the Clallam County Republicans, told Fox News Digital she expects a close race in the county but believes it will ultimately favor Trump. “I see it swinging towards Trump,” Blakeman said, citing strong Republican voter turnout and what she described as “the most active” ground campaign she has ever seen.
However, not everyone shares this optimism for a Trump victory in Clallam. Ben Anderstone, a progressive political consultant from Washington, suggested that a Trump win in Clallam County “would be a bit of a surprise at this point.” According to Anderstone, the county leaned significantly Democratic during the August primaries, with Democratic candidates winning approximately 57% of the vote compared to Republicans’ 43%. He believes that the presidential election will be closer but still expects a slight Democratic advantage. “Our model suggests Clallam will only tighten to 53%-47% Democratic or so,” he added.
The Pennsylvania Battleground: Bucks, Erie, and Northampton Counties
While Clallam County’s outcome could be telling, much of the nation’s attention is fixed on Pennsylvania, a pivotal swing state with 19 electoral votes. Within Pennsylvania, three counties—Bucks, Erie, and Northampton—are expected to play a decisive role. Both Trump and Harris have heavily invested their campaign resources in the state, viewing Pennsylvania as a potential path to the presidency. Trump spent the day before the election visiting both eastern and western Pennsylvania, while Harris made numerous stops across the state.
Berwood Yost, director of the Center for Opinion Research, explained the strategic importance of these three counties. “Both campaigns see the path to the White House running through Pennsylvania,” Yost said, emphasizing that success in Bucks, Erie, and Northampton counties could determine who wins the state. These counties reflect Pennsylvania’s diverse demographics, with factors like population density, educational attainment, and racial composition mirroring statewide trends.
Diverse Demographics and Tight Margins
Bucks County, located just north of Philadelphia, is primarily suburban and has become a key battleground due to its large population and suburban character. Erie County, in contrast, is a smaller, predominantly rural area in northwestern Pennsylvania, bordering Lake Erie. Meanwhile, Northampton County in eastern Pennsylvania is a suburban area home to Lehigh University, a private research institution.
In the 2020 election, President Joe Biden won Pennsylvania by a slim margin of 1.17%, and these counties were similarly close. Biden won Bucks by 4.37 points, Erie by just 1.03 points, and Northampton by a razor-thin margin of 0.72 points. These narrow margins underscore the tight race in Pennsylvania, making these counties crucial to each candidate’s strategy.
Economic Concerns and Their Impact on the Vote
Yost pointed out that like many other parts of the country, voters in these counties are concerned about the economy. Economic dissatisfaction may benefit Trump’s campaign, as many voters want change. However, Yost noted that despite these concerns, the Trump campaign has struggled to fully capitalize on them. “I think part of the reason the race is so close is that that message has not been consistently articulated by the top of the ticket,” Yost said, pointing to perceived distractions in Trump’s campaign that have raised doubts among some voters.
For Yost, the deciding factor may come down to independent voters and Republicans who are not particularly enthusiastic about Trump. “That to me is really going to be the inflection point of this election,” he explained. If these voters prioritize economic issues, it could work in Trump’s favor. However, if other concerns weigh on their minds, this might pose a setback for his campaign.
