On November 5, the United States braces for one of the most consequential and closely contested presidential elections in recent history. Millions of Americans are casting their votes to decide between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, with recent surveys indicating an incredibly tight race. As polls show the two candidates deadlocked, there is a small but noteworthy possibility of an electoral tie—a scenario that could throw the election into uncharted territory.
How the US Electoral College System Works
In the United States, the outcome of the presidential election isn’t decided by the popular vote but rather by the Electoral College. This system allocates 538 electoral votes among the 50 states and Washington, D.C., based on population size. To secure victory, a candidate must receive at least 270 of these electoral votes. However, if the electoral count results in a 269-269 tie, or if a third-party candidate prevents either Harris or Trump from reaching 270, the race will enter what is known as a “contingent election.”
What Happens in a Contingent Election?
A contingent election is the constitutional process that takes effect if no candidate achieves the necessary 270 electoral votes. According to the 12th Amendment, which was adopted after the contentious election of 1800, this responsibility falls to Congress. In this situation, the House of Representatives is tasked with selecting the president, while the Senate chooses the vice president.
In the House, each state’s delegation casts a single vote, regardless of the number of representatives it has. For a candidate to win the presidency, they must receive a majority of these state delegation votes. Meanwhile, the Senate follows a separate voting procedure to determine the vice president. This process is outlined in Article Two, Section One, Clause Three of the Constitution.
Potential Scenarios That Could Lead to a Tie
While the possibility of a tie is remote, election experts have mapped out paths that could lead to a 269-269 outcome. According to a CNN report, if Kamala Harris wins Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, and Nevada—states that President Biden carried in 2020—and gains one electoral vote from Nebraska, but loses Pennsylvania and Georgia, the result would be a deadlock at 269-269.
Timing of the Contingent Election
If neither candidate reaches the 270-vote threshold, a contingent election would be held on January 6, when Congress convenes to count the electoral votes. At that time, Congress would formally declare that no candidate has secured the majority. This triggers the House and Senate voting process, as explained by a Congressional Research Service analysis.
What If the Contingent Election Itself Ends in a Tie?
The House of Representatives is composed of an even number of state delegations, making it theoretically possible for the contingent election to end in yet another tie. If neither candidate achieves a majority in the House vote, the vote would be repeated until a winner emerges. However, if the House remains deadlocked by Inauguration Day on January 20, the candidate elected vice president by the Senate would assume the role of acting president. In this unusual scenario, the vice president-elect would step into the presidency until a consensus is reached.
But what if the Senate also fails to decide on a vice president? In that case, the line of succession would take effect. The Speaker of the House would become acting president until the House or Senate agrees on a president or vice president. If the Speaker’s role remains vacant or unresolved, the presidency would pass to the president pro tempore of the Senate or a designated cabinet officer, following established protocols.
Looking Ahead to Inauguration Day
No matter the outcome of the 2024 election, the president and vice president are slated to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025. If the election leads to a contingent process that remains unresolved by that date, the acting president would fulfill executive duties until a permanent leader is selected. The 2024 election’s razor-thin margins and unprecedented scenarios underscore the intricate processes outlined by the Constitution, ensuring the continuation of government even in the face of uncertainty.
