As election night approaches in 2024, many voters and pundits will inevitably hear the terms “red mirage” and “blue shift” used to describe shifting vote tallies. These terms refer to a phenomenon observed in recent elections, where early voting results, especially those counted on Election Night, can give a misleading impression of one party’s leadonly for that lead to change as mail-in ballots are tallied in the hours and days that follow.
What Are the “Red Mirage” and “Blue Shift”?
The “red mirage” is the term used when early election results show a significant lead for Republican candidates, especially in swing states, but that lead is often erased later in the night or in the days following Election Day as mail-in ballots are counted. These ballots tend to skew Democratic, due to historical voting patterns that see more Democrats voting by mail.
The “blue shift” refers to the opposite a gradual increase in Democratic votes as late-arriving mail-in ballots are counted. This shift has become more prominent in recent years with the rise of absentee and mail-in voting, a trend that surged during the COVID-19 pandemic.
These terms have become part of the electoral lexicon, largely due to the evolving nature of voting systems and the complexities involved in tallying mail-in ballots. While both phenomena can create confusion or give the appearance of election irregularities, they are a normal part of modern elections and don’t necessarily indicate fraud or misconduct.
Red Mirage in Action: The 2020 Election
The red mirage and blue shift were on full display in the 2020 presidential election. In key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, and Wisconsin, Republicans were initially ahead in the vote count, largely due to the number of in-person ballots cast on Election Day. However, as the counting of mail-in ballots continued over the next several days, Joe Biden’s vote share gradually increased, leading to a shift that ultimately handed him the win in those states.
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For example, in Georgia, it wasn’t until the early morning hours of November 6 that Biden’s lead became apparent. As CNN’s Phil Mattingly demonstrated with the network’s famous “Magic Wall,” small batches of absentee ballots that had been delayed in counting—especially from Democratic-leaning urban areas like Atlanta—helped shift the state in Biden’s favor.
While Trump and his supporters seized on this shift, citing it as evidence of election fraud, experts were quick to point out that it was simply a byproduct of how different states handle mail-in ballots. In Georgia, the state law allowed mail-in ballots to be counted after Election Day, which resulted in the appearance of a late surge in Democratic votes.
The Blue Shift in 2016
This wasn’t the first time the blue shift made headlines. In the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton also saw a shift in her favor as mail-in ballots were counted in the days following Election Day. Although she ultimately lost the election in the Electoral College, the final count saw Clinton edging ahead in the popular vote by millions of ballots, a testament to the influence of mail-in voting.
While the 2016 shift didn’t change the outcome, it did demonstrate the growing impact of absentee voting, particularly in states with large numbers of Democratic-leaning voters who rely on mail-in ballots. This trend has only intensified in 2020 and is expected to continue in 2024.
Official Certification of Election Results
One critical aspect of the election process that voters should keep in mind is that the results projected on election night are not final. Major news networks like CNN and others may project a winner based on exit polls and the results of early voting, but the official certification of the results can take weeks.
Each state has its own deadlines for certifying the election results, but they all have until December 11, 2024, to complete any recounts or resolve disputes. Until that point, it’s possible for the vote totals to change, especially as absentee ballots are processed and counted. Therefore, any shifting leads between Election Night and the final tally should be viewed as part of the normal process, not evidence of misconduct.
Voter Participation and Delays
A record number of voters have cast their ballots early in 2024, whether by mail or in person. This surge in voter participation has created long lines in some polling places, as seen in North Carolina, where early voting sites saw a steady stream of voters lining up as soon as the polls opened. In Georgia, voters were also seen delivering absentee ballots early on Election Day, ensuring their votes would be counted in time.
While these delays in vote counting may lead to a “red mirage” or “blue shift” in the final results, it’s important to remember that the delays themselves are not a reflection of election fraud but rather the complexities of handling a large volume of ballots.
Trusting the Electoral Process
As we approach Election Day, voters are encouraged to understand that the apparent shifts in vote counts are not unusual or indicative of foul play. The red mirage and blue shift are the result of changes in voting patterns, particularly the increasing use of mail-in ballots, and should not be mistaken for fraud.
Election officials are working to ensure that the 2024 election is secure and that every valid vote is counted. While the final certification may take time, the integrity of the process remains intact, and voters should have confidence that the outcome will be accurate, fair, and legally certified.
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