As the U.S. heads into the 2024 presidential election, experts are sounding the alarm on the phenomenon known as the “red mirage” or “blue shift.” This trend, where an early Republican lead on election night can disappear as mail-in ballots are counted, has become a focal point for misinformation. With former President Donald Trump’s claims of election fraud largely rooted in this voting pattern, understanding the dynamics at play is critical.
Understanding the “Red Mirage” and “Blue Shift”
The “red mirage” occurs when in-person votes, often favoring Republicans, are counted first, creating an initial lead. However, as mail-in ballots—usually leaning Democratic—are tallied later, this lead may shift, resulting in a “blue shift.” Trump has cited this pattern as evidence of fraud, despite experts emphasizing that it’s a natural consequence of mail-in voting protocols and not indicative of foul play.
2020 Election: An Example of the “Red Mirage”
During the 2020 election, this pattern was visible. On the night of November 3, many Americans went to bed without knowing who had won the key swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The following days involved closely watching vote counts in these battleground states. It wasn’t until early on November 6 that Joe Biden took the lead in Georgia. CNN projected Biden’s victory four days after Election Day, on November 7, though counting continued.
In 2020, counties favoring Biden reported results more slowly than those favoring Trump, as analyzed by MIT researchers. California, for instance—a heavily Democratic state—had the slowest count due to its policy of sending every registered voter a mail-in ballot. This contributed to a blue shift in the popular vote, even though it didn’t affect the overall timing of election results.
Past Precedents of the Blue Shift
The blue shift is not new. In 2016, when Hillary Clinton conceded to Trump, she was still behind in the popular vote. As additional ballots were processed, she ultimately gained millions more in popular support, though this wasn’t enough to change the overall outcome.
Certification of Results: A Formal Process
While news outlets like CNN may project a winner once a clear path is evident, official certification takes time. States have varying deadlines, and 2024’s deadline for final certification is set for December 11. This allows time for recounts and any legal disputes that may arise.
Will 2024 Be Any Different?
Despite potential delays, there are reasons to believe the vote-counting process might be quicker in some key states in 2024. For instance, new legislation in Georgia is expected to streamline ballot counting. Georgia’s Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger recently shared on CBS’s Face the Nation that the majority of ballots should be counted soon after polls close. “All early votes and all early accepted ballots… will have to have their results reported by 8 p.m.,” Raffensperger noted. With this law in place, around 70-75% of votes should be reported on election night, though the final outcome may still take additional days if the race is particularly close.
In other battleground states like North Carolina, where mail-in ballots arriving after Election Day will no longer be accepted, the process could also be faster. Similarly, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin still face challenges, as these states don’t allow processing of mail-in ballots until Election Day. However, with more experience and potentially fewer mail-in ballots than in 2020, officials hope the counting process will be quicker.
Election Officials Urge Patience and Trust
Key election officials are emphasizing accuracy and transparency in 2024. Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, speaking to CBS, underscored the importance of prioritizing security over speed, aiming for results by November 6, the day after polls close.
Pennsylvania’s top elections official, Al Schmidt, has called on the public to remain patient and trust the system. “In 2020… we saw that window of time between the polls being closed at 8 p.m. on election night and the race being called as a period of vulnerability where people were seeking to undermine confidence in the results,” Schmidt told NPR, referring to the state’s close 2020 results that ultimately saw Biden win after a complete count.
Historical Lessons: The 2000 Election and Beyond
The prolonged counting in close elections is not unique to recent years. The 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore, particularly in Florida, saw an intense recount period due to “hanging chads” on punch-ballot machines. This election took 36 days to resolve, with the U.S. Supreme Court ultimately stopping the recount and effectively handing the victory to Bush. Gore conceded on December 13, joining a rare list of vice presidents who counted electoral votes in their own defeat.
