The 2024 U.S. presidential election, primarily contested between Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and former Republican President Donald Trump, represents one of the most polarized and closely contested races in recent history. Polls indicate a neck-and-neck race, with Trump holding a slight edge in several critical swing states, including Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while Harris maintains a narrow lead in Michigan. The margin in these battleground states is so slim that even a small shift in voter turnout or sentiment could determine the election outcome, potentially leading to the first post-election crisis in recent history due to the ambiguous results.
The candidates offer starkly different policy directions, particularly in foreign policy, economic measures, and trade. Trump has continued his critical stance on NATO, suggesting a withdrawal from international alliances, while Harris advocates a reinforced commitment to global partners. Trump’s proposed tariff increases aim to curb international trade imbalances but risk sparking further economic tensions with both allies and adversaries. Meanwhile, Harris focuses on a strategic approach to industrial and technological protectionism that aligns with recent bipartisan measures introduced under the Biden administration, with the goal of preserving U.S. economic competitiveness.
With Election Day fast approaching, both campaigns are making final appeals to key demographics, focusing heavily on women and minority voters, whose turnout could swing the election. If the outcome is unresolved on election night, as some analysts predict, this election may prove historic not only for its intense polarization but for its potential to redefine U.S. policy both domestically and internationally.
Pennsylvania and Michigan- The Only Way to 270
Analysing whether the Kamala Harris campaign does have multiple pathways as they believe or are they projecting optimism, Pollster and communication strategist Frank Luntz outlines that even though the Harris campaign has many paths, each of them has to go through either Pennsylvania or Michigan. He highlights that there is no way that either of the candidates can win without either of the two states. He adds that the accusations that have surfaced on the ground have become increasingly concerning as it indicate a similar disruption that took place in the year 2020.
“In the election, it was clearly decided that there was a winner and there was a loser, and I am praying that they do not have the same thing this time,” he added, adding that it is already evident over the social media that there is a very effective effort to challenge all the accusations.
2020 Elections Were Rigged
He further stated that the polling is done and that now it is solely about the voting and the counting of the votes and the verification of that count. Further talking about the accusations, he mentioned, “so far, it doesn’t appear that these are grounded on any kind of fact but we know that there will be attempts and interference.”
He voiced his concern regarding the disruptions addressing the strongest suits of the United States as a nation; he expresses disappointment that despite being one of the strongest democracies with the strongest systems, the country still has to face such problems.
Kamala Harris Leading In Wisconsin
Talking about the most likely path for both the presidential candidates, Kamala Harris and Trump, to reach 270, Luntz stated that for Trump it is the Latino vote from the people of Arizona and Nevada and in the South, Georgia and North Carolina, and then it only has to take one of the Industrial states.
On the other hand, he mentioned that Harris is ahead in Wisconsin and she only needs to sweep Pennsylvania and Michigan, and then it will not matter in the two southern or Western states. He lastly concluded that both of them can lose a key state and still make up the difference.
