US Election: Campaign Events, Do They Really Move the Needle?

As Election Day approaches, both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have been intensively crisscrossing the nation. From packed rallies to surprise stops at local businesses and even a football game, the two candidates are doing everything they can to rally their bases and energize voters in key battleground states.

A Busy Campaign Schedule for Both Candidates

Despite some early concerns from Democrats about Harris not campaigning enough, both contenders have ramped up their schedules in the final weeks. According to VoteHub tracking, Trump has held 49 events since October 1, while Harris has hosted 45. Both candidates are averaging more than one event per day as they push to secure votes before Election Day.

Focus on the Swing States

In the seven critical swing states, Harris and Trump have each held 42 campaign events. Harris has concentrated much of her efforts on Michigan, while Trump has focused heavily on North Carolina. However, neither candidate has spent much time in Nevada or Arizona, likely because these states are viewed as less crucial in the final push.

Trump Hits Non-Swing States for High-Profile Rallies

While Trump has focused on swing states, he’s also held seven rallies in non-battleground states, including a notable event at Madison Square Garden in New York City. At first glance, it might seem like a misstep to campaign outside of swing states, but political experts argue that these rallies might not have much impact on the overall race. Research shows that events don’t significantly shift voter behavior in places where the candidate already has strong support, and media coverage of these rallies tends to have only a short-term effect.

The Power of Campaign Events: Do They Really Matter?

Political science suggests that, in general, campaign events don’t significantly increase a candidate’s vote share in the states they visit. Most people attending these rallies are already aligned with the candidate’s views, and the media buzz generated by these events often dissipates quickly. That said, they do provide opportunities for candidates to reinforce their messages and motivate their supporters to get out and vote.

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