US Election Result 2024: How Accurate Are Exit Polls?

US Election Exit Polls: After months of rallies, speeches, interviews, and town hall events, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, and people in the country are  watching the results on election night.

A key moment to watch during the vote counting is when networks release early exit poll data.

While this survey won’t immediately reveal the election winner, its numbers will be refined as the night progresses and more data is collected from polling stations nationwide.

Nevertheless, these initial results might provide insights into which campaign has effectively mobilized its base and how different voter groups are responding.

What is an exit poll?

An exit poll is a survey that gathers information on how people voted in an election and their motivations for doing so.

For a presidential election, the exit poll has three segments to account for the different ways people cast their votes.

Voters who participate in “early voting”—casting ballots in person before Election Day—are sampled at polling sites across the country, as are those who vote on Election Day itself.

Additionally, the poll targets those voting early or by mail, reaching them by phone, email, or text.

Voters are typically asked around 20 questions, covering whom they voted for, demographic details like age, gender, and race, and reasons for their choices.

News organizations may begin reporting exit poll data once the embargo lifts at 5 p.m. ET on election day.

Exit polls can only project a winner in a race if polls are closed across a state, and then only in races with clear margins.

How accurate are exit polls?

Caution is advised with the initial exit poll data released at 5 p.m. ET. These early results are frequently updated through the evening as more polling locations close. Voters surveyed earlier in the day aren’t always representative of the broader electorate.

For example, those who vote earlier tend to be older, a group in which Republicans often perform better.

As more data is collected throughout the night, exit polls align more closely with final results.

However, adjustments made through modeling can still significantly alter their outcomes.

In 2016, exit polls initially indicated Donald Trump had won the majority of white women. Subsequent analysis by Pew Research found that 47 percent of white women voted for Trump, a correction of six points from the original figure.

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