With Donald Trump returning to the White House, questions arise about the future trajectory of India-US relations under a second Trump administration. Trump has indicated plans to reshape US foreign policy, emphasizing “America First” principles. Meanwhile, Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar recently remarked that the US is likely to adopt a more isolationist approach, regardless of whether the next president is Trump or Kamala Harris.
India-US relations during Trump’s previous term
The rapport between Trump and Prime Minister Modi, showcased at events such as “Howdy, Modi!” and “Namaste Trump,” was a defining element of India-US relations during Trump’s previous term. For India, a key strategic partner of the US, another Trump presidency could bring both advantages and challenges across multiple areas: trade, immigration, defense, and diplomacy.
Trump’s approach to foreign policy revolves around prioritizing American interests and minimizing involvement in multilateral agreements. During his first term, he withdrew from or altered significant international pacts, such as the Paris Climate Agreement and the Iran nuclear deal. If elected again, such actions could continue, potentially affecting alliances and agreements with India.
India-US Trade Relations under Trump
Trade is likely to be an area of impact. Recently, Trump claimed that India imposes some of the highest tariffs on foreign goods, and he promised to establish a reciprocal tax if re-elected. Trump emphasized that reciprocity is central to his economic plans, noting that while the US generally does not impose tariffs, countries like China, Brazil, and especially India impose high tariffs on American products. Trump also acknowledged his good relationship with India, especially with its leader, Modi, whom he described as a great leader who has unified the country.
Such tariff policies could affect India’s IT, pharmaceutical, and textile industries, which are dependent on the US market. However, Trump’s push to reduce dependency on China could offer India new opportunities to attract US firms seeking to diversify their supply chains.
Immigration: Effects on the Indian Workforce under Trump
Trump’s restrictive immigration stance, particularly regarding the H-1B visa program, has historically impacted Indian professionals. His previous administration attempted to raise wage requirements for foreign workers and implement additional restrictions, creating hurdles for Indian IT professionals and tech companies. If these policies are reintroduced, they could limit the flow of Indian talent into the US, impacting both individuals and tech companies reliant on skilled Indian labor.
Jaishankar indicated that while trade and immigration may be challenging negotiation points under Trump, he generally views the India-US relationship positively, especially in relation to Prime Minister Modi.
Military and Defense Cooperation under Trump
Defense and military ties have been central to recent India-US relations. Initiatives like the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) and agreements such as the GE-HAL jet engine deal have strengthened defense ties under the Biden administration. Given Trump’s cautious view of alliances, as seen with NATO, it is possible he might adopt a similarly restrained stance toward military pacts. Nonetheless, India-US military cooperation could endure due to shared interests in countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
During Trump’s previous term, the Quad alliance between the US, India, Japan, and Australia was elevated as a strategy to counterbalance China. If re-elected, Trump could continue to foster defense collaboration, including arms sales, technology sharing, and joint exercises.
Counterterrorism
On the security front, Trump’s “Peace through Strength” philosophy may align with India’s goals for regional stability. India has sought stronger US pressure on Pakistan to address cross-border terrorism, a stance that Trump might support.
In summary, a renewed Trump administration offers both opportunities and obstacles for India-US relations, particularly in areas of trade, immigration, and defense.
Strategic matters
In strategic matters, Trump may likely continue prioritizing a US-India partnership, particularly in defense and counter-terrorism, with both nations sharing a common interest in balancing China’s influence. India-US relations are often framed through this mutual concern over China.
Economic policy
Economic policy shifts under Trump could also impact India, especially in manufacturing and technology. Trump’s focus on “America First” could impact trade and tariffs, though some experts predict he may aim to strengthen ties in certain areas. That said, a resurgence of trade tensions could occur, with Trump having previously labeled India a significant “trade abuser.”
Trump’s approach to immigration could again challenge the Indian workforce, particularly concerning H-1B visa policies. Meanwhile, if he adopts an assertive stance in South Asia, this could affect India’s relationships with neighboring Pakistan and China. Analysts also note the possibility of Trump’s policies strengthening the dollar, potentially causing volatility for the Indian rupee.
Revitalizing the Quad
Another key development was the revitalization of the Quad, an alliance among the US, India, Japan, and Australia, which has been instrumental in countering China’s regional influence.
Trade relations during Trump’s first term were more mixed. Trump had referred to India as a “tariff king” and, in 2019, terminated India’s preferential market access under the Generalized System of Preferences, citing insufficient market access for US goods. Tariffs on Indian steel and aluminum were also raised.
Modi-Trump relationship
In September 2019, then-President Donald Trump hosted Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Texas at the “Howdy, Modi!” event, which drew a crowd of approximately 50,000 people, making it one of the largest receptions ever for a foreign leader in the United States. The following year, Modi welcomed Trump to Gujarat, his home state, where over 120,000 attendees greeted them. Trump, however, lost the 2020 election to Joe Biden.
Four years later, at age 78, Trump is anticipated to make an unprecedented return to the White House, a victory that could have notable implications for India. Analysts suggest that Trump, given his anti-China and pro-Russia stance, may be more favorable toward India than Kamala Harris might have been. However, potential issues remain, particularly concerning trade and tariffs.
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