As the US approaches Election Day, more than 78 million ballots have already been cast across 47 states and the District of Columbia. These early voting patterns are offering valuable insights into the current electoral landscape, revealing how voter behavior is shaping up ahead of November 5. The trends point to potential shifts in partisan momentum, with significant implications for how the race to the White House could unfold. Below are three major takeaways from the early voting data so far:
Early Voting Turnout Declines from 2020
Early voting in 2024 has seen a significant drop compared to the 2020 pandemic election, when over 110 million Americans voted early. This year, pre-election voting is expected to make up about 50% of the total ballots, a figure closer to the 2022 midterms. As the pandemic has receded, more voters have opted to cast their ballots in person early rather than through mail-in ballots, a shift seen in states like Georgia and North Carolina, where record early in-person voting has been recorded. However, stricter regulations on mail voting have led to a decrease in that category.
Republicans Gain Ground in Pre-Election Voting
Republicans have seen a significant increase in early voting, reversing the trend from 2020 when many of the party’s leaders, including Donald Trump, discouraged early voting. This year, a larger share of Republicans have cast early in-person and mail ballots. Across 27 states, registered Democrats have made up 37% of pre-election ballots, while Republicans have cast 35%. In 2020, Democrats accounted for 42% of the early vote, compared to 30% for Republicans. In key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, and North Carolina, the Republican share of early voting has risen. In Arizona, 41% of pre-election voters were Republican, while Nevada Republicans increased their share by 1 percentage point to 37%.
Gender Gap Narrows in Early Voting
The gender gap in early voting remains significant, with women continuing to cast more ballots than men, particularly in states like Georgia and Pennsylvania. However, this gap is slightly narrower than in 2020, both in terms of percentage and total numbers. This shift is part of a broader trend of reduced early voting overall.
These early voting trends indicate a dynamic and competitive electoral environment, with important implications for voter turnout and momentum leading into Election Day.