US Elections 2024: Why Recounts Rarely Change Outcomes

As the American electorate remains deeply divided, the US elections are expected to feature several races so close that recounts will be necessary. However, those anticipating a change in the election outcome due to a recount should temper their expectations; history suggests such occurrences are exceptionally rare.

Tammy Patrick, a former election official in Arizona and current member of the National Association of Election Officials, explains that initial vote counts are generally reliable. “The (original) count is pretty accurate because the machines work — they work very well. We have recounts and we have audits to make sure we got it right,” she noted. This reliability is underscored by historical data, which shows that most recounts do not alter the original results, even when the margins are razor-thin.

A Brief History Of Recounts

Since the landmark 2000 presidential recount in Florida, which resulted in George W. Bush being declared the winner over Al Gore, there have been 36 statewide recounts across the country. Remarkably, only three of these recounts led to a different winner, and all of those races were decided by mere hundreds of votes rather than the thousands that sometimes separate candidates.

A comprehensive review, utilizing data from various election offices and research by FairVote, revealed that the average change in winning margins across these recounts has been just 0.03 percentage points. The most significant shift occurred in a Vermont auditor race in 2006, where the incumbent’s lead changed from 137 votes to a loss by 102 votes after a recount.

Recent Examples Of Recounts

Recounts can occur in both general and primary elections. A notable recent example took place in Washington state during the primary for commissioner of public lands. Democrat Dave Upthegrove initially led Republican Sue Kuehl Pederson by only 51 votes out of over 1.9 million cast. Following the recount, Upthegrove’s lead diminished by just two votes. In Washington’s primary system, the top two candidates advance to the general election, irrespective of their party affiliation.

Recounts also frequently happen in down-ballot races, where the margin can be as slim as a few votes. Despite the low turnout, these recounts also rarely result in a change of outcome.

Variability In Recount Laws

The rules governing recounts vary widely from state to state. Many states automatically trigger a recount if the margin between the leading candidates falls within a specific range, commonly set at 0.5 percentage points. However, there are exceptions. For instance, states like Alaska and Texas require an exact tie to initiate a recount, while South Carolina allows automatic recounts if the margin is 1% or less.

The bipartisan panel has the authority to declare a winner in races that are eligible for recounts based on the determined lead being too significant to be overturned. In the previously mentioned Washington primary, the AP waited until after the recount to declare the winner due to the close margin.

The Role Of Human Error In Recounts

Most recounts lead to only minimal changes in results, often due to human error during the voting process. While, many ballots can be rejected if not filled out correctly, yet these can be counted after a thorough review. Paper ballots require voters to fill in specific bubbles, and if not done correctly—such as marking a candidate with a circle or using unconventional marking tools—the votes may initially be overlooked.

In some states, bipartisan panels are set up to review rejected ballots to ascertain the voter’s intent. This process varies, with some states conducting reviews regardless of recounts, while others reserve this for recount situations or do not conduct reviews at all.

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