As Americans head to the polls on November 5, either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump is expected to secure the 270 electoral votes necessary to become the 47th president. However, there is a slim chance that neither may reach this threshold.
Two potential scenarios could lead to this outcome: a 269-269 tie between the two candidates or a situation involving “faithless electors” who cast their votes for someone other than their pledged candidate.
Electoral Process and the 12th Amendment Electors from each state are scheduled to meet on December 17 to officially certify the Electoral College results.
What happens if no 2024 presidential candidate gets 270 electoral votes?
Thirty states and Washington, D.C., have laws mandating that electors vote for the candidate who won their state or party’s nomination. In 2016, seven electors in Texas, Washington, and Hawaii deviated from casting votes for either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump, impacting the final tally.
In that election, although Trump secured states worth 306 electoral votes and Clinton won 232, the official result was adjusted to Trump 304 and Clinton 227 due to the faithless votes.
Congressional Decision-Making If no candidate receives 270 electoral votes, the 119th Congress, meeting on January 6, 2025, will count the electoral votes. The House of Representatives would then elect the president, with each state delegation casting one vote. A majority of 26 votes is needed to declare a winner. Currently, Republicans hold the majority in 26 state delegations, Democrats lead in 22, and Minnesota and North Carolina are tied. These numbers may change based on the upcoming elections.
Only 67 senators needed to formalize the result
The Senate will elect the vice president, requiring a simple majority for confirmation. Only 67 senators are needed to formalize the result, meaning that, in theory, just 34 votes could be sufficient to elect a vice president.
What if Congress Fails to Decide? If the House cannot decide on a president after initial voting, it must continue until a decision is reached. Should there still be no president-elect by January 20, 2025, the vice president-elect chosen by the Senate would assume the role temporarily. If neither chamber can decide by Inauguration Day, the Speaker of the House would step in as acting president under the Presidential Succession Act of 1947, until either a president or vice president is confirmed.
Likelihood of a Deadlock The chances of neither candidate securing 270 votes are low. Data from the website FiveThirtyEight shows that in 1,000 simulations, a “no winner” outcome occurred only three times. The last time the House of Representatives chose a president was in 1824, with one other instance in 1800.
