When Vice Presidents Became Presidents: Vice President George H. W. Bush, on January 6, 1989, oversaw a joint session of Congress to officially count the Electoral College votes and announce the winner of the November 1988 presidential election. He wrapped up his comments with a subtle smile as the results confirmed his position as the 43rd president of the United States.
Looking ahead, January 6, 2025, might witness another vice president certifying her victory in the 2024 presidential election. However, the historical context raises questions about the chances of a vice president ascending to the presidency.
How many US Vice Presidents became Presidents?
Kamala Harris is the fiftieth person to serve as vice president, with fifteen of the previous forty-nine having transitioned to the presidency. Notably, eight of these ascensions occurred only after the sitting president’s death, four due to natural causes: John Tyler succeeded William Harrison in 1841 after he passed away just a month into his presidency; Millard Fillmore took over from Zachary Taylor in 1850; Calvin Coolidge followed Warren Harding after his death in 1923; and Harry Truman became president after Franklin Roosevelt’s passing in 1945. Additionally, four vice presidents assumed office following assassinations: Andrew Johnson replaced Abraham Lincoln in 1865; Chester Arthur took over for James Garfield in 1881; Theodore Roosevelt succeeded William McKinley in 1901; and Lyndon Johnson followed John Kennedy in 1963. The only other transfer of power occurred when Gerald Ford became president after Richard Nixon’s resignation in 1974.
Kamala Harris is the eleventh vice president currently in office to run for election. Out of the previous ten, six were not successful: George Clinton in 1808, John C. Breckinridge in 1860, Richard Nixon in 1960, Hubert Humphrey in 1968, Walter Mondale in 1980, and Al Gore in 2000. Three former vice presidents later ran for the presidency: Henry A. Wallace, who served under Franklin Roosevelt from 1941 to 1945, lost in 1948; Richard Nixon ran again in 1968 and was victorious; and Joe Biden, who was vice president under Barack Obama from 2009 to 2017, won in 2020. Only four vice presidents who were in office successfully won elections: John Adams in 1796, Thomas Jefferson in 1800, Martin Van Buren in 1836, and George H. W. Bush in 1988.
Historical outlook of US elections
The historical outlook appears somewhat unfavorable for Kamala Harris, as only six of the fifteen vice presidents who became president did so through election victories, and just four out of the last ten campaigns by sitting vice presidents were successful. Additionally, there is the cautionary tale of Hubert Humphrey, who, after Lyndon Johnson withdrew from the race, lost in 1968. Harris’s opponent, Donald Trump, represents the second former president to seek re-election after losing a previous campaign as a major party candidate, following Grover Cleveland, who, after losing in 1888, won again in 1892.
Regardless of the outcome, the upcoming presidential election will unfold under markedly different circumstances than the last time a sitting vice president declared victory. The 1988 campaign experienced some contentious moments, yet the result was confirmed without incident. In contrast, the United States in 2024 is experiencing significant polarization. The confirmation of results in January 2025 may be overshadowed by the events of January 2021, when rioters breached the Capitol in an attempt to disrupt the certification of the electoral count by Vice President Mike Pence.
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