The final stretch of the 2024 presidential race is here. With Election Day upon us, the decision now rests in the hands of the voters. While around 75 million ballots have already been cast, the outcome will likely hinge on the results in seven crucial battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
As the clock ticks toward Tuesday, opinion polls in these states show some of the tightest margins in recent memory. With less than a 2-point difference separating the two major candidates in six of these states, here’s a snapshot of where things stand as voters head to the polls.
Arizona (11 Electoral Votes) – Polls Close at 9 p.m. ET
Former President Donald Trump is leading in Arizona by 2.5 points, according to the latest averages from The Hill and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ). This is one of the battlegrounds where Trump has performed most strongly, outpacing his competition by a wider margin compared to other states. In 2020, President Joe Biden narrowly won the state by less than half a point.
Early voting trends show Republicans with a slight edge—41% of ballots cast compared to 33% for Democrats, which is a shift from the 2020 race, where Democrats led in early voting. Though early figures may not tell the full story, the results suggest that Trump is holding a solid position here heading into Election Day.
Georgia (16 Electoral Votes) – Polls Close at 7 p.m. ET
Georgia remains one of the most contested states, with Trump leading by 1.8 points in the The Hill/DDHQ average. The state was one of Biden’s 2020 victories, but Trump is aiming to reclaim it this time.
While the early vote has shown higher turnout among rural voters, which could favor Trump, a recent New York Times/Siena College poll gave Harris a slim 1-point edge among likely voters, keeping the race extremely tight. Both campaigns are preparing for a close and intense battle in Georgia.
Michigan (15 Electoral Votes) – Polls Close at 8 p.m. ET
In Michigan, Harris holds a slight lead of just 0.8 points in The Hill/DDHQ average, making it one of the closer races in the battleground states. Although early voting data doesn’t indicate party affiliation, 55% of early voters are women, a demographic that could favor Harris.
However, Harris faces challenges in Michigan’s Arab American communities, particularly in Detroit and Dearborn, where divisive policies on Israel and Gaza could impact turnout. Recent polls show a tight race with some variations, indicating Michigan could go either way.
Nevada (6 Electoral Votes) – Polls Close at 10 p.m. ET
Nevada, though small in terms of electoral votes, is critical in the overall race. Trump currently holds a 1.3-point lead in the The Hill/DDHQ averages. Early voting, a key factor in the state, shows Republicans have gained ground, reversing the Democratic advantage seen in 2020.
Despite this, Harris has the support of influential local groups like the Culinary Workers Union and a strong Democratic infrastructure built by the late Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, which could play a crucial role in turning out voters on Election Day.
North Carolina (16 Electoral Votes) – Polls Close at 7:30 p.m. ET
North Carolina presents one of the more unpredictable scenarios, with Trump leading by 1.4 points in the The Hill/DDHQ average. The state was a Trump stronghold in 2020, and he will be looking to maintain his lead here.
However, the race is far from settled. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll showed Harris with a 3-point advantage among likely voters, signaling that the state could be in play for the Democrats. The early voting figures show a relatively even split between Republican and Democratic ballots, suggesting a tight contest.
Pennsylvania (19 Electoral Votes) – Polls Close at 8 p.m. ET
Pennsylvania, the largest of the battlegrounds, is shaping up to be one of the closest races in the nation. Trump holds a narrow 0.5-point lead in The Hill/DDHQ average, and polling from other outlets, including FiveThirtyEight, shows similar trends.
Despite an uptick in Republican early voting, particularly among women, Harris’s campaign remains optimistic. With both candidates making frequent visits to the state, it’s clear that Pennsylvania will be a key determinant in the race. The final vote here could be a nail-biter, and both parties are fully mobilized for the showdown.
Wisconsin (10 Electoral Votes) – Polls Close at 9 p.m. ET
Wisconsin is considered one of Harris’s stronger battlegrounds. Historically, the state has leaned Democratic, but Trump flipped it in 2016. In the 2024 race, the polls are tied in the The Hill/DDHQ averages, with Harris holding a slight 1-point lead in other polling models.
If Harris loses Wisconsin, it would be a major blow to her campaign. However, Democratic concerns are high given Trump’s ability to outperform his polls in the state in both 2016 and 2020. This makes Wisconsin one of the most critical states to watch as the night unfolds.
The Road Ahead
As the final ballots are cast, the fate of the 2024 presidential election will be decided in these battleground states. Each one is unique, with its own set of challenges, but all share one thing in common: they are tightly contested, and the outcome is far from certain. Voter turnout and the final stretch of campaigning could tip the balance in any direction, making Election Day a nail-biting experience for both campaigns.
The results in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will ultimately decide whether Vice President Harris or former President Trump will take the White House. With polls showing razor-thin margins in nearly every state, it’s all down to the voters—who will cast their verdict in these pivotal battlegrounds.
