Every four years, much of the world watches the U.S. Presidential election results with anticipation. However, for some countries, including China, the stakes are especially high. As the White House prepares for a potential transition of power, observers speculate on which candidate—Kamala Harris or Donald Trump—Beijing might favor.

David Rennie, geopolitics editor for The Economist, recently suggested that China may prefer a Trump win. In a video released on November 2, he cited trade, security, and predictability as primary factors influencing this view.

Would Trump administration be easier for Beijing to navigate?

On the same day, China’s news outlet Guancha.cn held a panel discussion with two experts on U.S.-China relations. Both experts largely agreed that a second Trump administration might be easier for Beijing to navigate. Despite the official Chinese stance of neutrality regarding party preferences in the U.S. election, public opinion on social media and in op-ed pieces leans more toward Trump than Harris, underscoring reasons for Beijing’s interest in the outcome.

Other reports suggested that China might lean toward a Harris victory due to the strained bilateral ties seen under Trump’s leadership. Jia, a member of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, emphasized the challenging period China faced during Trump’s presidency. Yet, opinions within Chinese academia and the public remain split, with a general belief that the result might not drastically alter U.S.-China relations.

China a primary opponent for US

While both candidates regard China as a primary opponent, they have distinct approaches to the U.S.’s global role, which will impact their respective China policies. From China’s perspective, a Trump presidency might actually benefit Beijing’s interests in the Asia-Pacific region due to Trump’s perceived prioritization of domestic over global affairs. Additionally, a paper by Professor Michael Fox of Chatham House observed that Chinese officials view a Trump win as potentially beneficial, especially if it strains U.S. alliances in Asia.

Trump’s “America First” stance might mean a decreased focus on global responsibilities—an outcome China might strategically welcome. Various Chinese commentators have also pointed out that the European Commission reportedly set up a team to prepare for Trump’s potential return to the White House, a signal of the global interest in his impact.

U.S.-China trade

Regarding U.S.-China trade, Trump has consistently blamed China for harming American economic interests, aligning with his earlier administration’s trade policies. Trump maintains that China’s growth has come at the expense of U.S. intellectual property rights and fair trade. Meanwhile, Harris, aligned with Biden’s approach, emphasizes that China’s rise challenges American and Western values, necessitating limits on China’s technological, military, and economic advancements.

In a recent paper, Fox warned that a Trump-Putin “deal targeting Iran” could increase global instability and create diplomatic gains for America’s rivals. For many Chinese analysts, this risk of global volatility under Trump aligns with their preference for a Trump win. During the 2016-2020 period, Trump’s interactions with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his opposition to U.S. involvement in Ukraine have furthered this narrative, with Trump even stating his intent to “break up” the supposed alliance between China and Russia.

China influence in the Pacific

On Taiwan, Harris is expected to continue the Biden administration’s focus on Taiwan’s strategic role, using it as a counterweight to China’s influence in the Pacific. Chinese experts believe Trump, by contrast, has a different stance on Taiwan, viewing it as less central to core U.S. interests.

Ultimately, while foreign policy is unlikely to determine the U.S. election outcome on November 5, Trump has indicated that if re-elected, he would cut back on U.S. global military spending. This commitment, particularly in areas like Ukraine, the Taiwan Strait, and the South China Sea, signals why China is closely monitoring the election. It is no coincidence that Xi Jinping has scheduled a significant CCP politburo meeting for November 5-8.