With the U.S. 2024 presidential election just around the corner, speculation is at an all-time high. Will former President Donald Trump reclaim the White House, or will Vice President Kamala Harris secure a historic victory? Various political analysts and strategists weigh in with their predictions on not only the presidential race but also the battles for control of the House and Senate. Here’s a detailed breakdown of their forecasts, revealing insights into key races, anticipated outcomes, and the implications for American governance.
Predictions for the White House: Trump vs. Harris
Experts are sharply divided on who will secure the presidency, with close projections and only a few electoral votes separating the two candidates in several predictions.
- Mick Mulvaney
- Prediction: Trump wins the White House with 281 electoral votes.
- Key States: Trump is expected to capture Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona, while Harris takes North Carolina.
- Insight: Mulvaney highlights Trump’s stronghold on swing states and foresees Democrats retaining control of the House, with an estimated pickup of 11 seats for the GOP in the Senate. Mulvaney quips, “It’s over already? Seems like it just started. Now, who’s ready for 2028?”
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Bill Press
- Prediction: Harris edges out with 313 electoral votes.
- Key States: Press believes Harris will secure Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona, while Trump may take North Carolina.
- Analysis: According to Press, Trump “stalled and lost the election in the last two weeks,” suggesting Harris’s narrow victory could be driven by overwhelming support from women and Republicans disillusioned with Trump.
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Grover Norquist
- Prediction: Trump wins with 281 electoral votes.
- Key States: Norquist expects Trump to triumph in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona.
- Takeaway: Norquist links Trump’s popularity to a pro-growth economic policy and criticizes the “Biden spending spree,” which he argues led to inflation and economic decline.
- Richard Fowler
- Prediction: Harris secures the White House with 292 electoral votes.
- Key States: Fowler expects Harris to take North Carolina and Pennsylvania, with Trump likely winning Georgia and Arizona.
- Observations: Fowler emphasizes that the race’s outcome will hinge on female voter turnout, dismissing claims that Trump will make historic gains among Black male voters.
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Armstrong Williams
- Prediction: Trump wins with 285 electoral votes.
- Key States: Williams anticipates a Trump sweep in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona.
- Insight: Williams believes Trump’s late-campaign surge and strong ground game will push him over the finish line, while the economy could hurt Harris’s chances.
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Maria Cardona
- Prediction: Harris wins decisively with 321 electoral votes.
- Key States: Cardona predicts Harris will take North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona.
- Analysis: Cardona underscores an “unmeasured, underestimated energy” among women, youth, and voters of color as critical to Harris’s potential success.
Control of Congress: House and Senate Predictions
The race for Congress is equally competitive, with differing expectations on which party will control each chamber.
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House of Representatives
- Mulvaney and Norquist both foresee a Democratic hold, with Mulvaney estimating an 11-seat GOP pickup and Norquist expecting four new seats for Republicans.
- Williams and Cardona also project a Democratic-controlled House, with Williams predicting a 14-seat GOP gain and Cardona forecasting a 9-seat Democratic increase.
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Senate
- Predictions for the Senate are mixed. Mulvaney, Norquist, Press, and Williams all project a Republican-controlled Senate, with GOP gains ranging from two to four seats.
- Cardona, however, anticipates a Democratic majority with exactly 50 seats, tipping the scales in favor of the Democrats.
Key Senate Races in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin
In addition to the overall control of the Senate, several key races are expected to be close, with strategists weighing in on the likely winners.
- Michigan: Across the board, all analysts agree that Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D) will take the Michigan Senate seat.
- Ohio: While Mulvaney, Norquist, and Williams project a win for Bernie Moreno (R), Press and Cardona believe Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) will retain his seat.
- Pennsylvania: Predictions vary, with Mulvaney, Norquist, and Williams forecasting a victory for Dave McCormick (R), while Press and Cardona expect Sen. Bob Casey (D) to win.
- Wisconsin: Opinions are also split, with Mulvaney, Norquist, and Williams favoring Eric Hovde (R), while Press and Cardona predict a victory for Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D).
Expert Takeaways and Final Thoughts
- Mulvaney remains cautious but optimistic for the GOP, already looking ahead to 2028.
- Press believes Harris’s victory could be a direct result of a late Trump stumble and a significant turnout among women.
- Norquist argues that economic concerns, particularly inflation, are driving voters toward Trump and the GOP.
- Fowler dismisses the notion of Trump’s appeal to Black male voters and underscores the impact of women on the election’s outcome.
- Williams points to Trump’s final-campaign surge as a decisive factor.
- Cardona highlights a broader disillusionment with Trump and a groundswell of support from underrepresented groups, fueling Harris’s chances.
