YouGov Poll Reveals Close Race In Battleground States

A recent YouGov poll, conducted from October 25 to 31, 2024, surveyed seven key battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — for The Times and SAY24, a research initiative by Stanford, Arizona State, and Yale Universities.

Battleground States Scenario

The findings indicate that among likely voters, defined as those registered who have either already voted or plan to vote (and also participated in the 2020 or 2022 elections), Vice President Kamala Harris holds narrow leads in Wisconsin (4 points), Pennsylvania (3 points), Michigan (3 points), and Nevada (1 point). Donald Trump has a slight edge in North Carolina and Georgia, leading by 1 point in each, while Arizona remains a dead heat.

Minimal Changes Since Early Septembes In Battleground States

These results reflect only minimal changes since early September, the previous time these states were polled. Harris has gained 3 points in Arizona, but in the other states, support for both Harris and Trump has either shifted by 1 point or remained stable. Across all seven swing states, Harris has stronger support among women, while Trump leads among men; this gender divide is less pronounced in North Carolina and Wisconsin.

If the current state-level leads hold and other states vote as they did in 2020, Kamala Harris could secure a narrow electoral victory. However, the leads for both Harris and Trump in these battlegrounds fall within the polls’ margin of error.

Democrats Vs Republicans

This year, Senate races are also underway in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where Democrats currently hold all five seats. Two of these are open races, while incumbents are defending the other three. In these states, Democratic Senate candidates are outpacing Harris, leading by margins between 4 and 9 points. While the Democratic candidates remain in front, their Republican opponents have gained slightly since September.

At this stage, more voters are uncertain about voting than are genuinely undecided. Only 3% of registered voters remain unsure of their choice; however, around two-thirds of these lean toward either Trump or Harris when asked a follow-up question. Ultimately, only about 1% truly view both candidates equally.

Uncertain voters

Additionally, 7% of registered voters are uncertain about whether they will vote, with 4% leaning toward voting, 2% giving it an equal chance, and 1% indicating they are unlikely to vote. Historically, the proportion of registered voters who are confident they will vote tends to overestimate actual turnout, suggesting the true number of uncertain voters might be even higher.

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