500 Days Of Sudan’s War: What’s Happening Now And What Lies Ahead?

Sudan has been ravaged by conflict for the past 500 days, and this conflict has left many dead and injured, with the violence creating one of the largest displacement crisis in the world. According to the UN, over 10 million people have fled their homes and more are continuously facing the danger of displacement.

The fighting between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) erupted in Khartoum on April 15, 2023. Since that day, the conflict has intensified and spread across Sudan, leading to an unprecedented humanitarian crisis.

What Sparked The Conflict?

In April 2023, Sudan was thrust into conflict as a bitter power struggle erupted between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the leader of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, who heads the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The clash between these two military figures centred on the future direction of Sudan and its transition to civilian governance.

The origins of this conflict trace back to 2019 when widespread protests led to the ousting of long-time dictator President Omar al-Bashir. In the wake of his removal, Sudan saw a brief experiment in shared power between military and civilian factions, culminating in the appointment of Abdalla Hamdok as Prime Minister until elections could be held.

However, this arrangement was short-lived. In October 2021, Burhan and Dagalo staged a coup, overthrowing Hamdok’s administration. Burhan assumed the role of de facto leader, with Dagalo as his deputy.

The generals had initially promised to hold elections by July 2023. As the election date neared, disagreements intensified, particularly over how to integrate the RSF’s 10,000-strong force into the national army and who would oversee this integration. Tensions reached a boiling point in April 2023 when the RSF was redeployed across Sudan, an action perceived by the army as a direct threat, igniting full-scale warfare.

Malnutrition Crisis

As the war rages on the incidence of malnutrition is also on the rise coupled with the rise in the price of food with only a limited humanitarian supply in hand. Furthermore, heavy restrictions placed by the parties in conflict have made it more difficult to provide aid.

The ongoing conflict has paralyzed around 80% of the medical and healthcare facilities in Sudan, as per reports from the World Health Organisation. Additionally, millions are caught in the grip of hunger as some regions are facing famine due to the missed planting period which is paired with the inaccessibility to the market.

The Current Scenario

The conflict has claimed the lives of more than 15,000 individuals in Sudan, with some rescuers reporting a higher tally of 40,000, although this figure is not officially authenticated

“According to UN experts, around 25 million people – half of Sudan’s population before the war – are in need of urgent assistance. Nearly nine million people are internally displaced, among them about 4 million children. Another 20 million children are out of school. Over half the population of 49.6 million doesn’t have access to healthcare,” according to a report published in The Conservation.

Severe Floods Worsen Sudan Crisis

The crisis in Sudan intensified due to floods that ravaged the country in the last week of August. The flooding had triggered a dam breach in Port Sudan, an eastern city, which claimed at least 30 lives. Hundreds are feared missing, and around 20 villages near the dam have been devastated. The floods also heavily impacted the already struggling Darfur region, where they obliterated displacement camps and further complicated the already strained humanitarian efforts.

Geo-Political Implications Of The Conflict

The ongoing conflict is not just a humanitarian crisis but could also become a major geopolitical tumult. The conflict can easily spread into the neighbouring countries of Sudan due to its borders with seven fragile nations, including Chad, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Libya.

Humanitarian organisations are consistently pushing towards a nationwide ceasefire between the two conflicting parties and obeying International Humanitarian laws by giving protection to civilians in distress and allowing seamless access to aid.

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