A recent United Nations report warns that existing climate policies could result in global warming exceeding 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of this century, far surpassing the limits agreed upon nearly a decade ago.
Emissions Gap Report Findings
The annual Emissions Gap report assesses countries’ commitments to combat climate change against the necessary actions required to meet global targets. It reveals that without significant action to reduce emissions, the world could see temperature increases of up to 3.1°C (5.6°F) above pre-industrial levels by 2100.
In 2015, nations signed the Paris Agreement, aiming to limit warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F) to avoid severe consequences. U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres emphasized the urgency of the situation: “We’re teetering on a planetary tightrope. Either leaders bridge the emissions gap, or we plunge headlong into climate disaster.”
Rising Emissions
The report highlights a troubling trend, noting that global greenhouse gas emissions rose by 1.3% between 2022 and 2023, reaching a record high of 57.1 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. Despite current pledges, projected temperature rises remain significant, estimated between 2.6°C (4.7°F) and 2.8°C (5°F) by 2100—findings consistent with previous reports over the last three years.
Anne Olhoff, the report’s chief scientific editor, stated, “If we look at the progress towards 2030 targets, especially of the G20 member states … they have not made a lot of progress towards their current climate targets for 2030.”
Upcoming Climate Negotiations
The world has already warmed by approximately 1.3°C (2.3°F). As nations prepare to gather at the annual United Nations climate summit (COP29) next month in Azerbaijan, discussions will focus on building upon last year’s agreement to phase out fossil fuels.
Negotiations in Baku will guide each country’s updated emissions-reduction strategies, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which are due by February 2025.
The report underscores the need for nations to collectively commit to reducing yearly greenhouse gas emissions by 42% by 2030, aiming for a 57% cut by 2035. Achieving these goals is crucial to maintaining the hope of limiting warming to 1.5°C—a target that now seems increasingly unlikely.
( Includes inputs from online sources)
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