The recent political upheaval in Bangladesh, marked by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s resignation and subsequent departure following violent protests, has profound implications for India’s trade, security, and diplomatic relations with Dhaka. The appointment of Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus as the head of Bangladesh’s interim government by President Mohammed Shahabuddin adds a new dimension to the evolving scenario.
Political Shift and Regional Realignments
Top government sources in India express concern over the potential impact of these developments. “All these developments are not very positive. An invisible hand worked behind her removal and it could possibly guide the new government too. The new leadership will have new realignments in the region and it may be a challenge for India to gain unlimited trust,” sources indicated. They added, “The Yunus-led government will evaluate its relationship with neighbors such as India and Pakistan and world powers like China and the USA, and it may not necessarily be favorable towards India.”
Increased Competition from China and the West
There are indications that Dhaka might lean more towards the West and China, intensifying competition for India, akin to the situations in Nepal and Sri Lanka. “With a new government in place, Dhaka may also not want to resolve the long-standing water and border disputes. Border disputes such as exchanging around 160 enclaves, boundary demarcation, fencing, and border killings will remain. We also have problems in the Tin Bigha Corridor and Mehuri River area and maritime disputes in the Bay of Bengal. We have made extensive progress in these areas but conclusive results are pending,” the sources added.
Potential Rohingya Crisis Escalation
The Indian government anticipates an escalation in the Rohingya crisis. “The influx will increase, and as Yunus and the new group are close to social and human rights watchers, they will increase pressure on India. Any mistake along the border by India will be highlighted internationally,” sources warned. The potential radicalization of these groups is another concern. “At times, it is difficult to isolate them completely. In India, large colonies have come up in many states, and they have surrounded the areas in a particular pattern,” they added.
Counter-Terrorism Coordination Challenges
The change in Bangladesh’s political landscape poses significant challenges to counter-terrorism coordination between India and Bangladesh. The existing cooperation between Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) and National Security Intelligence (NSI), along with the Border Security Force (BSF) and Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB), might be affected. “Given the change, India will now face a major challenge while repeating an operation such as the 2019 ban on Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB),” sources noted.
Ensuring Safety of Hindus in Bangladesh
One of the most pressing concerns for India is the safety of Hindus in Bangladesh. “India will have to seek complete safety of Hindus in Bangladesh without any condition,” sources emphasized. The protection of the Hindu minority will be a critical aspect of India’s diplomatic engagements with the new Bangladeshi government.
