Brazil’s Supreme Court to Decide Bolsonaro’s Fate: What Happens Next?

Brazil’s Supreme Court is set to decide on Tuesday whether former President Jair Bolsonaro and several of his associates will stand trial on charges including attempting to stage a coup, the Associated Press reported. The decision could have significant political and legal consequences for the far-right leader, who was charged in February with plotting to overturn his 2022 election defeat. Here’s a breakdown of the case and what might happen next:

What Are the Charges Against Bolsonaro?

Bolsonaro was charged in February by Brazil’s prosecutor-general with leading a criminal organisation that sought to undermine the country’s democratic process. The indictment alleges that Bolsonaro spread false claims about Brazil’s electronic voting system and attempted to remain in power unlawfully after his defeat to current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

Prosecutors claim Bolsonaro supported a plot to poison his successor and assassinate Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, a key judicial figure who has frequently ruled against him. Bolsonaro, along with 33 others charged in connection to the case, denies these allegations.

What Will the Supreme Court Decide?

A panel of Supreme Court justices will review the indictment and determine whether there is sufficient evidence to proceed with a criminal trial. If they accept the charges, Bolsonaro will officially become a defendant, and the case will move forward with further investigations, hearings, and legal proceedings. If the justices reject the indictment, the case could be dismissed, though this is considered unlikely.

What Are the Possible Consequences for Bolsonaro?

If found guilty, Bolsonaro could face significant legal penalties. Under Brazilian law, a conviction for attempting a coup carries a sentence of up to 12 years in prison. With the additional charges, he could face several decades behind bars.

Politically, Bolsonaro is already banned from running for office until 2030 for allegedly abusing power and undermining confidence in the voting system. However, he and his allies have reportedly been seeking to amend laws that prevent convicted criminals from seeking public office.

How Has Bolsonaro Responded?

Bolsonaro has vehemently denied any wrongdoing, claiming he is the victim of political persecution. In a YouTube broadcast with his lawyer, Paulo Cunha Bueno, he dismissed the accusations as a “constructed narrative” without sufficient evidence. He also addressed his supporters during a mass demonstration in Rio de Janeiro on March 16, framing the charges as an attempt to silence him.

His allies in Congress have also pushed for legislation that would grant amnesty to those convicted over the January 8, 2023 insurrection, when Bolsonaro supporters stormed government buildings in a failed attempt to overturn the election results.

What’s Next?

The Supreme Court’s decision will be a crucial turning point in Bolsonaro’s legal and political future. If the indictment moves forward, the case could take months or even years to conclude.

(With inputs from the Associated Press)