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The probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 striking Earth in 2032 has risen to 3.1%, according to the latest data from NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS). This translates to a 1-in-32 chance of impact.
NASA has been steadily revising its estimates. On February 7, the agency increased the asteroid’s impact probability from 1.2% to 2.3%. Subsequent updates saw the likelihood rise to 2.6% before reaching the current figure of 3.1%.
Tracking Asteroid 2024 YR4
Scientists have been closely monitoring 2024 YR4 since its discovery on December 27, 2024. The asteroid, estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet in diameter, has been placed on NASA’s risk list due to its potential impact on December 22, 2032.
On January 27, the impact probability crossed the 1% threshold, prompting an official notification from the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN).
Potential Impact Zone of ‘City Killer’ Asteroid
The risk corridor—the area that could be affected if 2024 YR4 strikes Earth—encompasses major global regions, including the eastern Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean, the Arabian Sea, Africa, South Asia, and parts of South America.
Some of the world’s most densely populated cities fall within this corridor, including Bogotá (Colombia), Mumbai and Chennai (India), and Lagos (Nigeria).
Torino Scale Rating
NASA currently classifies 2024 YR4 at level 3 on the Torino Scale, a system used to gauge the potential threat of near-Earth objects (NEOs). The scale ranges from 0 (no risk) to 10 (certain catastrophic collision).
“It is uncommon for an asteroid to be rated at Torino Scale 3,” NASA stated. “This can only happen for an asteroid larger than 20 meters (65 feet) with an impact probability of 1% or greater, which is quite rare for an object of this size. Smaller objects have reached higher impact probabilities, even up to 100%, but they are always rated 0 on the Torino Scale because of their size.”
Expert Opinions
Bruce Betts, chief scientist at The Planetary Society, described 2024 YR4 as a potential “city killer.” Speaking to AFP, he explained, “If you put it over Paris or London or New York, you basically wipe out the whole city and some of the environs.”
The European Space Agency (ESA), which has independently calculated a 2.4% chance of impact, warned of the asteroid’s destructive potential. “An asteroid this size impacts Earth on average every few thousand years and could cause severe damage to a local region,” ESA stated.
What Comes Next
For now, 2024 YR4 is moving away from Earth. Scientists plan to continue monitoring its trajectory through April before tracking it again in June 2028 when it reenters Earth’s vicinity.
Experts anticipate that as more data becomes available, the likelihood of impact will decrease. “The odds are very good that not only will this not hit Earth, but at some point in the next months to few years, that probability will go to zero,” Betts reassured.
While 2024 YR4 remains under observation, researchers emphasize that the risk, though notable, is not cause for immediate alarm. Continued monitoring and further analysis will help refine predictions and clarify the asteroid’s long-term trajectory.
Also Read: What Is City Killer Asteroid 2024 YR4 And Why Has China Devised ‘Planetary Defence Force’
