China’s Expanding Nuclear Arsenal: A Global Security Concern?

The rapid growth of China’s nuclear arsenal, which has surged from 410 warheads to 500 within a year, is becoming a significant concern for other countries, according to a recent report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

In its 55th yearbook for 2024, SIPRI, an independent international institute focused on research in conflict, armaments, arms control, and disarmament, highlighted that China’s nuclear stockpile is expected to continue expanding. “The estimated size of China’s nuclear arsenal increased from 410 warheads in January 2023 to 500 in January 2024, and it is expected to keep growing,” the report noted.

For the first time, China might be deploying a small number of warheads on missiles during peacetime, a development that marks a significant shift in its nuclear strategy. Depending on its force structure decisions, China could potentially possess as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as Russia or the USA by the end of the decade.

Hans M. Kristensen, an Associate Senior Fellow with SIPRI, stated, “China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country, but in nearly all of the nuclear-armed states there are either plans or a significant push to increase nuclear forces.”

Despite its rapid expansion, China is still projected to have a smaller total nuclear arsenal than the United States or Russia. However, due to its accelerated deployment, China might eventually match their active armament levels in the coming years. Currently, over 2,100 nuclear missiles are believed to be in use and under control globally, with the vast majority held by the US and Russia.

This buildup comes at a time of heightened global tensions, with conflicts in Taiwan, Gaza, and Ukraine contributing to an increasingly volatile international landscape. Over the past year, China has conducted more military exercises near Taiwan, leading some observers to speculate about preparations for a possible invasion of the disputed territory.

SIPRI also pointed out that most nuclear-armed nations are either expanding or modernizing their arsenals. Israel, which does not officially acknowledge possessing nuclear weapons, is reportedly modernizing its stockpile. Similarly, North Korea, France, and India have also taken steps to increase their nuclear capabilities over the past year.

The rapid expansion of China’s nuclear capabilities, coupled with the broader trend of nuclear armament across the globe, underscores the growing complexity and danger of international security dynamics.