China’s maritime evolution is becoming a pivotal force in international geopolitics, marking a significant shift from its traditional land power status to a formidable naval presence. While the rhetoric of owning the South China Sea “since ancient times” persists, it is only in recent decades that the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has begun to assert itself far beyond the Chinese coastline. The first circumnavigation of the globe by the PLAN occurred in 2002, and since then, China’s naval modernization has surged, aiming to secure its influence in critical maritime areas, including the Arctic, around Taiwan, and beyond.
Recent events illustrate this growing assertiveness. A Type 052DL destroyer and a Type 055 cruiser recently docked in Port Vila, Vanuatu, for a naval diplomacy visit, signaling China’s commitment to expanding its maritime influence across the Pacific. Dr. Andrew Erickson, a professor of strategy at the U.S. Naval War College, describes China’s national security priorities as concentric circles. The first circle focuses on securing its immediate periphery, the second represents a zone of disruption against potential attackers, and the third signifies areas where China seeks to extend its reach, albeit with caution due to the presence of stronger regional powers.
The Strategic Three Zones of Control, Influence, and Reach
China’s maritime strategy reflects its historical context, particularly its post-Communist expansion into borderlands and maritime territories. Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has further facilitated China’s influence over land routes, yet the sea remains a complex battlefield. Erickson notes that while China is becoming an increasingly formidable opponent in sovereignty disputes—especially regarding Taiwan—the challenges posed by geography and capable adversaries remain daunting.
Historically, China’s maritime achievements have been mixed. Although it has settled most land border disputes, outstanding claims in the Yellow, East China, and South China Seas are perceived by Chinese leaders as historical injustices that need redress. This mindset has contributed to China accumulating the world’s most extensive and numerous disputed island claims, focusing strategically on the southeastern maritime area.
Naval Expansion and Military Presence
China now boasts the world’s largest maritime forces, including a powerful navy, coast guard, and maritime militia. With a defense budget that ranks second globally, it is experiencing the fastest military build-up since World War II. Xi has positioned himself as China’s first navalist leader, initiating a “far seas protection” strategy in 2015. This plan encompasses near-seas defense, far-seas protection, and a growing presence in the polar regions, signifying a comprehensive approach to maritime power projection.
As part of this strategy, recent military drills around Taiwan illustrate China’s commitment to demonstrating its military capabilities. The Joint Sword-2024B exercises conducted on October 14 showcased potential scenarios for imposing a maritime blockade, a tactic that could prove both beneficial and risky for Beijing.
The Taiwan Question: Risks and Strategies
Taiwan represents a critical focus of China’s maritime ambitions. As a vital economic hub reliant on international trade—importing approximately 97% of its energy and 70% of its food—any disruption could severely impact the island’s stability. A study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) suggests that a blockade could be perceived as a more viable option than a full-scale invasion, though the risks involved are substantial. A blockade might not achieve Beijing’s objectives without significant military commitment and could provoke strong responses from the United States and its allies.
To effectively enforce a blockade, China would rely on a diverse array of military assets, including naval fleets, air forces, and coastal defense systems. CSIS outlines various blockade scenarios ranging from kinetic actions to more subtle mining operations, emphasizing that Taiwan’s resilience and potential international support would be crucial factors in any confrontation.
Expanding Maritime Horizons: The Arctic and Beyond
China’s ambitions extend beyond its immediate maritime domain. The summer of 2024 witnessed unprecedented activity in the Arctic, with multiple oceanographic vessels conducting hydrographic research and surveys, signaling Beijing’s growing interest in this strategically vital region. These operations not only serve scientific purposes but also bolster military capabilities, enhancing China’s situational awareness in the Arctic waters.
Notably, the recent voyages of the Xiang Yang Hong 01 and Kexue ships into contested waters highlight China’s determination to challenge U.S. maritime claims, especially following America’s designation of an extended continental shelf in the Bering Sea. This maneuvering underscores Beijing’s selective adherence to international maritime laws, leveraging them when advantageous while disregarding unfavorable judgments.
Conclusion: A Looming Maritime Confrontation
As China continues to expand its maritime footprint, tensions are likely to escalate in various hotspots. The combination of an assertive naval policy, strategic infrastructure developments, and the ongoing Taiwan dilemma sets the stage for potential confrontations. The question remains: how will the international community respond to China’s maritime ambitions, and what consequences will arise from its bid to reshape the balance of power in global waters?
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