The annual COP29 United Nations summit has commenced, bringing together delegates from nearly 200 countries to address the escalating threat of climate change. As they gather, a new uncertainty looms over the United States’ climate commitments following Donald Trump’s recent presidential election victory.
Will US again withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement?
Trump has indicated that, if he serves a second term, he would again withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement—a 2016 accord designed to cut greenhouse gas emissions and cap global warming at no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This mirrors the U.S. withdrawal during Trump’s first term, though the nation later rejoined under President Biden.
The United States first joined the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), an international climate treaty, in 1992 and has participated in numerous COP conferences since, most recently at COP28 in Dubai.
A conservative policy outline, Project 2025, created by the Heritage Foundation for the next Republican administration, recommends that the U.S. withdraw from both the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement, though Trump has distanced himself from this specific plan.
What is COP29?
The 29th U.N. Climate Change Conference, COP29, has begun in Baku, Azerbaijan, and will continue until November 22. This yearly summit, held in varying locations, gathers world leaders and thousands of other representatives from countries that are parties to the UNFCCC. The primary objective is to assess progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, as each nation sets its own targets and action plans toward limiting global warming.
Currently, the world is falling significantly short of achieving these goals. 2023 marked the highest recorded greenhouse gas emissions globally, although 42 countries—including the United States, China, Russia, and those in the European Union—have reported declining emissions.
Who’s attending COP29?
President Biden is sending a delegation that includes senior climate policy advisor John Podesta, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, and White House national climate advisor Ali Zaidi. Vice President Kamala Harris represented the U.S. at last year’s conference.
The Baku summit is expected to be smaller than previous conferences due to several factors, such as limited attendance passes, hotel space, and concerns regarding Azerbaijan’s human rights record and its economy’s dependence on oil.
Several other global leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, have opted out of this year’s summit. California Governor Gavin Newsom will also not attend, though the state typically has a robust presence at COP gatherings. Higher attendance is anticipated at next year’s COP30 in Brazil, whose president has shown stronger commitments to emissions reduction and climate financing.
What’s expected?
Nations are expected to present updated climate action plans detailing how they intend to cut emissions. President Biden’s administration is likely to submit its updated NDCs before his term concludes, though it remains uncertain if these commitments will hold under a Trump administration.
Climate financing will also be a central topic. Wealthy nations, which contribute most to climate change, are anticipated to support developing countries with funding for climate adaptation and green energy projects. Amnesty International estimates that trillions of dollars will be necessary to equip these nations for climate resilience.
Potential Impact of a Trump Presidency
Analysts suggest that if the U.S. withdraws from key climate agreements, it could lose influence in global climate negotiations, harm its reputation as a climate leader, and potentially lead other major emitters, such as China, to downscale their commitments. Exiting the Paris Agreement would release the U.S. from yearly emissions reporting requirements and reduce its obligations to provide climate financing to developing nations.
Nevertheless, even without federal support, U.S. states, local governments, businesses, and nonprofits are expected to persist in climate initiatives. Climate advocacy groups have reaffirmed their dedication to clean energy, carbon reduction, and environmental protection following Trump’s election. States are anticipated to maintain investments in programs for carbon neutrality, cap-and-trade systems, and infrastructure enhancements.
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