As COP29 draws to a close in the Azeri capital of Baku, the talks are on the precipice of a crisis. With one day left in the talks, almost every country and bloc attending the climate conference rejected the new draft texts, not just on finance—which had been the central focus of the summit—but in all other key areas of negotiation as well. Rejection Exposes Class and Differences Within the Camps; Divisions Remain on the Key Climate Issues.
The main concern of the objections was the finance deal, to which developing countries were particularly critical. However, the differences did not stop there. Conflicts also arose on the mitigation (reduction of emissions) and adaptation fronts; these core issues created additional fissures in the negotiations.
But the big issue had to do with how to incorporate into the 2024 agreement the decisions made in the 2023 GST that was held in Dubai. The GST is a crucial process under the Paris Agreement to review progress by all in addressing climate change globally. The first round of the exercise was held last year in Dubai. The outcomes of the GST, asking for aggressive climate action, became a flashpoint in Baku.
Key Disagreement: Phasing out Fossil Fuels
The most contentious paragraph was one asking nations to phase out fossil fuels, triple renewable energy by 2030, cut methane emissions, and phase down coal. The paragraph immediately got opposing hands in India and Saudi Arabia among others.
India specifically objected to mentioning any reduction in methane emissions, arguing that it might undermine its farm sector. Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing countries opposed talking about any transition of fossil fuel as they feared the impact on their economies.
India Opposes Repeat Discussion of GST Results
India had made very clear its position on the GST. “As per the Paris Agreement, GST is supposed to only inform parties to undertake climate action,” said Leena Nandan, India’s lead negotiator. She underlined the fact that GST was not meant to impose binding commitments but would guide countries to set their own climate policies.
Saudi Arabia echoed this sentiment and, through the Arab Group, supported by Saudi Arabia, made it clear it would not support any text that singled out “any specific sector, including fossil fuels.” The latter indicates a firm stand against any change of focus from oil production, as central to its economies, for countries in this group.
Focus Shift: Mitigation vs. Finance
Another important point raised by developing nations, especially India, was the diversion of focus away from finance. At the beginning of the COP29 meeting, the agenda of discussion was on enabling climate finance through the New Cumulative Quantitative Goal (NCQG), laid down to augment sufficient financial inputs to the developing nations. As the discussions progressed, there seemed to be an increasing shift towards prioritizing mitigation over the finances that would be required for the achievement of those mitigations.
India’s negotiator, Nandan said, “COP after COP, we keep talking about mitigation ambitions—what is to be done—without talking about how it is to be done. In other words, what are the enablers for raising the mitigation ambition? She observed that by accentuating mitigation, the financing mechanisms necessary for actual actions by countries were expected to be ceded to oblivion.
“We cannot accept any attempts to deflect the focus again from finance to repeated emphasis on mitigation,” Nandan concluded, pointing out the underlying tensions over equitable support for climate actions.
In the forward outlook, a stalemate looms
As the clock ticks toward the close of COP29, the conference faces a tough challenge. The disagreements over the role of finance, how to implement GST decisions, and the future of fossil fuel reliance mean that not many feel that consensus will be reached. The outcome of these talks will significantly shape the global response to climate change in the years ahead.
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