A recent study estimates that approximately 175,000 individuals actively work for Mexico’s smuggling cartels, making them the country’s fifth-largest private employer. This remarkable scale is sustained by their efficient and ruthless recruitment strategies, says researcher Rafael Prieto-Curiel. The cartels recruit over 350 people each week to counterbalance their losses from arrests, killings, and dropouts.
Recruitment: The Key to Cartels’ Survival
“Cartels must maintain about 175,000 members to survive,” Prieto-Curiel explained. “They can’t afford to be much smaller or larger than this size.” Using advanced computer models, researchers analyzed the operations of 150 cartels, highlighting recruitment as the cornerstone of their success.
The findings come as cartel violence escalates in Mexico. Since September 2024, internal conflicts within the Sinaloa Cartel have claimed over 500 lives, with another 500 individuals reported missing. This surge in violence underscores the growing challenge posed by these organizations.
President-elect Donald Trump has proposed classifying cartels as foreign terrorist organizations and involving the U.S. military in counter-cartel operations. However, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has firmly opposed such measures, labeling them as interference in national affairs. “We collaborate and coordinate, but we will never subordinate ourselves,” she stated.
Expanding Operations Beyond Drugs
Cartels’ activities extend beyond drug trafficking to include money laundering, sex trafficking, and human smuggling. During the U.S. border surge, their profits from human smuggling reportedly surpassed drug revenues. Experts also link cartels to the ongoing fentanyl epidemic, as they dominate the drug’s production and distribution after displacing Chinese syndicates.
According to Prieto-Curiel, cartel membership increased by 60,000 between 2012 and 2022, reaching 175,000 members. Over the same period, Mexico’s murder rate nearly doubled. His projections suggest a further 42% rise in homicides over the next five years unless significant interventions occur.
Reducing cartel recruitment by half could lower murder rates by 25%, while eliminating recruitment entirely could halve the murder rate—though Mexico would still remain more violent than any European country.
Prieto-Curiel highlights poverty and inequality as key drivers of cartel recruitment. Additionally, media portrayal of cartels, such as Netflix’s Narcos, glorifies their figures and contributes to their allure.
Major Cartels and Membership Breakdown
The Jalisco New Generation Cartel accounts for 18% of the 175,000 cartel members, followed by Sinaloa factions (9%), La Nueva Familia Michoacana (6%), Noreste (4.5%), and Union Tepito (3.5%). The remaining 60% is distributed among over 100 smaller cartels.
Between 2012 and 2022, cartels suffered significant losses, with 60,000 members killed and another 60,000 incapacitated.
With 175,000 members, cartels outsize Pemex, Mexico’s leading oil company, and rival Walmart, which employs around 200,000 people in the country. This alarming scale demonstrates their entrenched position within Mexican society and economy.
