Turkey saw its biggest power shift in its political landscape on Sunday. The nation underwent its general assembly elections, and millions of Turkish voters ousted the long-sitting president of more than two decades, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and his party, the Justice and Development Party (AK Party). Instead, the nation brought the main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), to power. The CHP won the municipalities of 36 of Turkey’s 81 provinces and also secured mayoral victories in the country’s five largest cities, including Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Bursa, and Antalya.
So, what went wrong for Erdogan, and what conclusions can we draw from the Turkey election results?
But before that, let’s look at the result statistics.
Results:
Results show that the main opposition party CHP gained 37% of the votes nationwide, while the ruling AK Party’s vote share dropped to 36% from 44% in 2019. This year marks the first time that the AK Party has hit its all-time low (this statistic is according to Foreign Policy).
So, in 2019, the main opposition leader, Imamoglu, ended the years of AK Party rule in Istanbul with the support of other opposition parties. Then, Imamoglu tried to maintain opposition unity until the year 2023. Post-2023, the opposition partnership fell apart, and Erdogan saw an opportunity to overturn Imamoglu’s victory in 2019. However, Imamoglu defeated Kurum by around 10 percentage points, taking 51% of the vote. This marked the highest margin of victory for an Istanbul mayor in 40 years, the Foreign Policy report said.
Another significant setback for the AK Party occurred in Ankara, the capital of Turkey. The incumbent CHP Mayor Mansur Yavas secured 60.4% of the vote, significantly surpassing the AKP opponent Turgut Altinok, who received 32%.
The CHP now commands extensive territories in the western, southern, and northern regions of Turkey. According to a report by the BBC, the AK Party “still maintains control over central Turkey and has seen more success in regions of the southeast that were severely affected by the February 2023 double earthquake.”
Reason for Erdogan’s party defeat:
‘Economy’ is the main factor behind the party’s fall. The country has been facing ‘inflation’ for a while now. According to a report by Foreign Policy, although official statistics indicate that inflation reached nearly 70% in February, unofficial sources suggest the figure could be closer to 100%. The rapid increase in inflation has greatly impacted the daily lives of many Turks, leading to a significant cost-of-living crisis. Additionally, it has substantially devalued the lira, Turkey’s national currency.
Conclusions of the result:
The win obviously boosts the confidence of the opposition. It gives the opposition alliance a boost to stand together united as before; they were upset and disagreed with each other because they lost to Erdogan in 2023. Imamoglu’s big win makes him even more important. He’s not just a leader now but also Erdogan’s main opponent. Some people think Imamoglu might run for president in the future because he’s well-liked and good with the media.
For Erdogan, losing this time might mean he won’t be in politics anymore. Even though Erdogan said he wouldn’t run for president again after 2023, some people thought he might change the rules to stay in power longer. But now, it doesn’t seem likely.