In a significant shift in East African geopolitics, the leaders of Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia convened in Asmara, Eritrea’s capital, to strengthen ties in response to growing tensions with Ethiopia. This summit marks a pivotal moment in the region’s complex dynamics, particularly regarding the historical relationships among these nations.
The Eritrean government emphasized the need for “respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the countries in the region” in its post-summit statement. While Ethiopia was not directly mentioned, this remark is widely interpreted as a reference to Ethiopia’s ambitions for access to a seaport, complicating its landlocked status.
The meeting follows a recent diplomatic rift that has prompted Somalia to align more closely with Egypt and Eritrea, both of which have longstanding disputes with Ethiopia. Experts, including Hassan Khannenje from the Horn International Institute for Strategic Studies, express concerns that this growing alliance could escalate tensions further, stating it appears to form an “axis against Addis Ababa.”
However, Somalia’s Information Minister, Daud Aweis, sought to mitigate these concerns, asserting that the summit focused on cooperation rather than conflict. “We are not determined to instigate anything against Addis Ababa,” he clarified, while acknowledging the complexities of their relationship with Ethiopia. His emphasis on peace and stability underlines Somalia’s commitment to fostering positive relations in the region.
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A photograph shared after the summit captured Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki greeting Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. The leaders collectively agreed to bolster Somali state institutions to tackle both internal and external challenges, particularly the threat posed by terrorism. They stressed the importance of empowering the Somali National Federal Army to combat groups like al-Shabab, which continue to destabilize the region.
This meeting marked President Sisi’s first visit to Asmara, while President Mohamud has made multiple trips to Eritrea this year. Traditionally, Ethiopia has played a crucial role in supporting the Somali government against militant threats; however, recent developments have strained relations. Ethiopia’s preliminary agreement with Somaliland to lease a coastal area has been viewed by Somalia as a direct affront to its territorial integrity, exacerbating regional tensions.
The relationship between Ethiopia and Egypt has also been fraught for over a decade, primarily due to the construction of Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile River. Egypt perceives this dam as a significant threat to its water security, further complicating the geopolitical landscape. Reports of military shipments from Egypt to Somalia have raised alarms in Addis Ababa, indicating a burgeoning military alliance.
In 2018, there were hopeful signs of reconciliation between Ethiopia and Eritrea when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed signed a “declaration of peace and friendship” with Eritrea, an act that earned him the Nobel Peace Prize the following year. However, recent tensions have overshadowed these developments, particularly following Ethiopia’s civil war in the Tigray region, which shares a border with Eritrea. Eritrea had supported the Ethiopian government during this conflict but has since adopted a more cautious approach, especially after Abiy expressed aspirations for greater access to Red Sea ports.
As the geopolitical landscape in the Horn of Africa continues to evolve, the emerging alliance of Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia presents a complex challenge for Ethiopia. The dynamics of this coalition, combined with historical grievances and territorial disputes, have the potential to significantly impact regional stability. The international community is watching closely as these developments unfold, underscoring the intricate balance of power and the potential for conflict in this volatile region.
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