Far-Right AfD Emerges as Dominant Force in German State Elections, New Leftist Party Gains Ground

For the first time since World War II, a far-right party has become the largest force in a German state parliament. The Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) secured a historic victory in Thuringia, winning 32.8% of the vote according to exit polls on Sunday. The results mark a significant shift in Germany’s political landscape as the AfD also secured second place in Saxony with 30.6% of the vote.

Alice Weidel, the co-leader of AfD, celebrated the outcome, calling it a landmark moment for the party. “It is a historic success for us. It is the first time we have become the strongest force in a state election. It is a requiem for this coalition [in Berlin],” she said.

Founded just 11 years ago, the AfD has gained traction in recent years, securing mayoral and district government positions but has yet to participate in state governance. Mainstream parties have maintained a strong stance against collaborating with the AfD, vowing to keep a “firewall” that prevents the party from entering government.

Mainstream Parties Suffer Heavy Losses

The election results delivered a major blow to the ruling coalition of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left federal government. All three coalition parties suffered single-digit percentage votes in both Thuringia and Saxony, signaling a loss of confidence among voters in the former communist east. With turnout reaching around 74%, the elections underscored growing disillusionment with Germany’s traditional parties just a year before the next general election.

For months, the centrist parties have been struggling to reverse a trend of declining support in the east, but Sunday’s results confirmed their inability to sway voters back. The sense of disillusionment is especially pronounced in the former East Germany, where decades of structural decline, economic struggles, and depopulation have left many feeling like second-class citizens.

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Populist Left Gains Foothold: The Rise of BSW

The election also saw a breakthrough for the left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which has quickly established itself as a significant political player. The eight-month-old BSW captured 11.8% of the vote in Saxony and 15.8% in Thuringia, making it a potential kingmaker in the coalition talks. Wagenknecht’s platform, which includes calls for higher taxes on the wealthy, stricter immigration policies, and an end to military support for Ukraine, resonated strongly in the east.

“This is the first time in the history of the republic that a party has performed so well in state elections on its first try. That’s something one can be proud of,” Wagenknecht said in response to the results.

CDU Holds Ground Amidst Political Turmoil

The conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) managed to secure a win in Saxony with approximately 32% of the vote, keeping it ahead of the AfD, though only narrowly. This outcome strengthens the position of CDU leader Friedrich Merz, who is positioning himself as a key challenger to Scholz in the next national election. In Thuringia, the CDU came in second with 23.6% and may attempt to form a ruling coalition with smaller parties, including BSW.

Despite this relative success, Merz has maintained that the CDU will not align with extremist groups, even as his rhetoric on immigration has shifted rightward since Angela Merkel’s departure in 2021. The CDU’s struggle to balance this stance reflects the broader challenges faced by traditional parties as they navigate a rapidly changing political landscape.

AfD’s Extreme Rhetoric Fuels Divisive Campaign

The AfD’s election campaign in Saxony and Thuringia was marked by harsh anti-immigration and anti-Islam rhetoric, amplified by public outrage over recent violent incidents, including a mass stabbing in Solingen allegedly committed by a rejected Syrian asylum seeker. The party’s regional chapters, classified as right-wing extremist by German security authorities, have pushed boundaries, with Thuringia leader Björn Höcke known for his use of banned Nazi slogans and controversial views on Germany’s historical atonement for the Holocaust.

At a rally in Erfurt, Höcke stirred his supporters by condemning Germany’s mainstream “cartel parties” and accusing them of replacing the German people with a multicultural society under what he described as a “totalitarian dictatorship.” Höcke’s aim to secure a blocking minority in Thuringia underscores his broader goal of reshaping Germany’s political culture.

Coalition Talks Set to be Complex and Contentious

With no party securing an absolute majority, the path to forming a stable government in Saxony and Thuringia is fraught with challenges. The BSW, described by political analyst Prof André Brodocz as a “gamechanger,” provides a less extreme alternative for voters dissatisfied with the status quo but unwilling to support the AfD.

Wagenknecht, looking ahead to the 2025 federal elections, has hinted at tough demands in any coalition talks, including a shift toward diplomacy with Russia and opposition to U.S. military initiatives in Germany. Meanwhile, Scholz’s ruling coalition continues to face mounting criticism and internal strife, struggling to deliver on key policy promises such as economic revitalization and environmental initiatives.

In response to Sunday’s election results, Omid Nouripour, co-leader of the Greens, captured the mood of many: “The breakthrough for the far right causes many people very deep concern and fear.”