The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has garnered more than a third of the vote for the first time in a state parliament election. Newly formed populist party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), achieved two-digit support in its debut election. The Berlin-based federal government’s constituent parties experienced unprecedentedly poor results in this regional vote.
State elections in Germany carry significant national implications as they serve as an indicator of the federal government’s performance. Although only two of the 16 federal states voted on September 1, with their 5 million eligible voters being a small fraction of the 61 million nationwide, the results are nonetheless important.
In Saxony and Thuringia, the far-right AfD received more than double the votes of the three parties that constitute the federal coalition government: the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), the environmentalist Greens, and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP). The results for these coalition parties were each in the single digits, with the Greens in Thuringia and the FDP in both states failing to meet the 5% threshold for representation in state parliaments. Although pre-election polls had suggested the SPD might be ousted from the state parliaments, it ultimately avoided this outcome.
Anti-immigration sentiments to exacerbate?
The atmosphere towards immigrants in Thuringia has been growing increasingly harsh recently. The recent knife attack in Solingen, which resulted in three deaths, is expected to exacerbate these sentiments further.
Tensions may escalate again, similar to when AfD Thuringia leader Björn Höcke incited his audience in Gera to shout Nazi slogans in December 2023, or when the weekly anti-migration protest winds through the town’s streets.
While many immigrants are deeply worried about the possibility of an AfD victory in Thuringia and Saxony, some even contemplate voting for the far-right party despite its anti-immigration stance and proposals for “remigration,” a term used for returning immigrants to their countries of origin regardless of their citizenship status.
AfD targets supporters of Turkish origin and immigrants from Russia. The party uses videos to promote Turkish nationalism and the Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan. They also appeal to Russian-Germans by portraying them as having been forced to integrate without recognition and still lacking status in German society. Germany is home to an estimated 6 million Russian-speaking people, most of whom are German nationals from the former Soviet Union, including Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan.
The AfD’s message to migrant voters is that they worked hard for everything upon arrival, while new refugees are perceived as receiving benefits without effort.
Dissatisfaction with federal government
A majority of German voters have expressed dissatisfaction with the federal government, a sentiment that has persisted for some time. Monthly surveys by Infratest Dimap consistently show poor approval ratings for Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his ministers. The coalition government is viewed as embroiled in continual disputes and ineffective. Even the government’s prompt and unified response to the fatal knife attack in Solingen, which occurred shortly before the elections, did not have a significant impact. During the electoral campaigns, the federal government announced stricter migration and security policies and made a surprising decision to deport 28 asylum-seekers who had committed crimes to Afghanistan.
The AfD perceives the state elections as a confirmation of broad support for its party, with AfD co-leader Alice Weidel describing the results as “historic” and calling for the federal government to resign. She stated that the results are a form of punishment for the federal government and a declaration of the coalition’s failure, suggesting that the federal government should question its ability to govern and consider fresh elections after the Brandenburg election.
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Next big fight in Brandenburg
Attention now shifts to Brandenburg, where an election is set for September 22. The AfD is leading in the polls there, though closely followed by the Social Democrats. The SPD is expected to make a concerted effort to remain calm and secure a favorable outcome, as the vote is critical for them. The SPD has governed Brandenburg since 1990. SPD co-leader Lars Klingbeil indicated that the party needs to work together to regain support, emphasizing that all members must contribute to improvements.
Despite the disappointing results in Thuringia and Saxony, Chancellor Scholz retains the backing of his party, according to Klingbeil, who dismissed calls for personnel changes within the SPD. The SPD leadership has reiterated that Scholz will lead the party into the next federal election.
However, if Brandenburg’s long-serving state premier Dietmar Woidke fails to secure reelection, speculation within the SPD may intensify regarding a potential shift in leadership. Rumors suggest that Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who is more popular than Scholz, could be a candidate for chancellor in the federal election scheduled for September 2025.
AfD, BSW have close connections with Moscow
Russia may be seen as an indirect beneficiary of the recent German state elections. Both the AfD and the BSW, which are believed to have close connections with Moscow, oppose supporting Ukraine amid Russia’s ongoing invasion.
Despite their differing positions on the political spectrum, the AfD and BSW share a strong opposition to military involvement in the conflict. They criticize the roles of the US and NATO and advocate for stronger relations with Russia regarding European security.
Additionally, they have been vocal critics of the aid provided by Europe and the US to Ukraine since early 2022. When Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy requested further support from the Bundestag in June, many members of both the AfD and BSW walked out in protest.
Germany’s response to Russia’s war against Ukraine remains a sensitive topic, particularly in the east, due to the region’s historical ties as former East Germany, a close ally of the Soviet Union.
Although the state elections do not directly influence Germany’s foreign policy, the success of both parties will likely be viewed as a public endorsement of their positions on Russia and Ukraine.
Also Read: Rise Of AfD In Germany: Party Set To Win First State Poll Since WW2
