France Elections 2024: Exit Polls Show Far Right Winning First Round But Final Result Still Unpredictable

Exit polls of the ongoing France elections indicated that Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) party had won the first round of the French parliamentary elections on Sunday, June 30. However, days of horsetrading before the run-off election next week will determine the unforeseen outcome.

It was estimated by exit polls from Ipsos, Ifop, OpinionWay, and Elabe that the RN would receive about 34% of the vote.

This was in front of opponents who lean left and centre, such as President Emmanuel Macron’s Together coalition, whose bloc was predicted to win between 20.5% and 23.3%. The exit polls indicated that the New Popular Front, a hurriedly constructed left-wing alliance, was expected to secure approximately 29% of the vote.

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The election’s strong turnout and results that matched polls conducted before the election left little doubt about whether the pro-EU, anti-immigrant RN would be able to form a government with Macron.

There will now be a week of political wrangling before the run-off on July 7. The way parties choose to cooperate in each of France’s 577 seats for the second round will determine the outcome.

The French center-left and center-right parties have historically cooperated to prevent the RN from gaining power, although this alliance—known as the “republican front” in France—is less assured than it formerly was.

This month, the French president decided to hold early elections, which caused political unrest throughout his nation, shocked the continent, and sparked a sell-off of French assets on financial markets.

Voter turnout on Sunday demonstrated how the country’s deep political crisis has galvanised the public.

Turnout by 1500 GMT was almost 60%, up from 39.42% two years prior, which is the highest comparable turnout since the 1986 legislative vote, according to Mathieu Gallard, research director at Ipsos France.

The RN, a longstanding outcast, is suddenly more powerful than it has ever been. In light of public resentment of Macron, the high cost of living, and growing immigration worries, Le Pen has attempted to purify a party that was once notorious for racism and antisemitism. This strategy has proven effective.

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