French PM Barnier Faces Potential Ouster Amid Tensions with Hostile Parliament

France’s political landscape stands on the brink of upheaval as the far-right National Rally (RN) party, led by Marine Le Pen, confirmed plans to submit a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government. The move comes amid escalating tensions over the 2025 social security budget bill, which has faced opposition across the political spectrum.

Far-Right and Left-Wing Coalition Challenge the Government

Marine Le Pen’s National Rally announced its ultimatum, stating that unless significant concessions are made, the party will formally lodge a censure motion by Monday afternoon. This aligns with an earlier announcement by the New Popular Front (NPR), a left-wing coalition comprising Socialists, Greens, the hard left, and Communists, which pledged to take similar action if the budget is forced through without parliamentary approval.

RN president Jordan Bardella, speaking to RTL radio on Monday, expressed frustration with the government’s approach.
“Without a last-minute miracle, our party will trigger the motion. Everything we have proposed is in the interests of the French people. All the amendments we have tabled in recent weeks, everything has been knowingly despised and ignored,” Bardella stated.

Timeline and Potential Consequences of the Motion

If submitted, the no-confidence motion will be debated and voted on within 48 hours, likely on Wednesday. Should the motion garner support from both left-wing and far-right MPs, it would pass, leading to the government’s collapse just three months after its formation.

In such an event, Prime Minister Barnier would be compelled to resign. However, he and his cabinet could remain in a caretaker capacity while President Emmanuel Macron determines the next steps. Macron’s options would include forming a new coalition, appointing a technocratic government, or calling for legislative elections in the summer, as no general election can occur within a year of the previous vote.

A Divided Parliament and a Contentious Budget

France’s political gridlock stems from the results of June’s snap elections, which left parliament fractured into three nearly equal factions: left, center, and far-right. This division has stymied efforts to address France’s mounting public deficit, with the government proposing €60 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts in its 2025 budget.

The social security budget bill has faced staunch rejection from both ends of the political spectrum. To bypass this opposition, Barnier is expected to invoke Article 49.3 of the French Constitution, which allows the government to push legislation through without a parliamentary vote.

Barnier, a seasoned conservative and former EU Brexit negotiator, warned last week that a no-confidence vote could trigger “a big storm and very serious turbulence on the financial markets.”

Demands and Reactions from the Opposition

The RN has criticized Barnier’s concessions, including the removal of a proposed electricity tax hike, as insufficient. Their demands focus on protecting vulnerable groups such as households, small businesses, and pensioners. The party has called for eliminating budget proposals that would delay inflation-linked pension increases and reduce medication reimbursement.

Marine Le Pen, writing in Le Figaro last week, dismissed fears of chaos if the government fell.
“There would be no catastrophic ‘shutdown.’ Our party will not be made scapegoats for the incompetence of governments unfit for debate and compromise,” she declared.

Meanwhile, government spokesperson Maud Bregeon emphasized the administration’s willingness to negotiate.
“Barnier’s team remains open to dialogue to find a compromise,” Bregeon said on Monday.

Historical Significance and Political Implications

If the no-confidence motion succeeds, it would mark only the second time a French government has been toppled in this manner since the establishment of the Fifth Republic in 1958. The last such instance occurred in 1962 when Georges Pompidou’s government fell during Charles de Gaulle’s presidency.

Barnier’s appointment in September followed a summer of political stalemate, with neither the NPR nor RN securing an outright mandate to govern despite gaining more seats than the centrist bloc. Both factions have since questioned the legitimacy of Barnier’s administration.