French PM Michel Barnier to Resign After Losing Confidence Vote

France is bracing for another political upheaval as Prime Minister Michel Barnier is expected to resign on Thursday. This follows a historic confidence vote defeat, marking the second major political crisis for the country in just six months.

Barnier’s Record-Short Tenure

Michel Barnier, who was the European Union’s Brexit negotiator, will resign as the shortest-serving prime minister in modern French history. A French government has not experienced a loss of confidence in parliament since 1962, with Georges Pompidou at its helm.

National Budget Barnier was criticized by the extreme right and left parliamentarians who had handled the national budget. He had approved a questionable plan to reduce €60 billion ($63.07 billion) from government spending without garnering parliamentary approval. Such a measure, designed to help tackle France’s rising deficit, is seen as outrageous and mostly opposition parties.

The proposed budget cuts were hugely criticized as being too stern on the working class. Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally Party accused the measures as being wrong and unfair as they allegedly hurt ordinary citizens more.
Tensions over the budget have dominated French politics over the past few weeks, where Barnier’s approach seems to alienate key factions in an already divided parliament.

How Will Barnier’s Resignation Impact President Macron’s Leadership?

The resignation is another blow to President Emmanuel Macron, who has been heavily criticized over his leadership skills. Macron caused the crisis by calling an early election earlier this year, looking to bolster his position ahead of the 2024 Paris Olympics. But the outcome was the opposite, his party now finding itself minus a parliamentary majority.

Though Macron cannot be made to resign, as his mandate runs until 2027, the political turbulence has already weakened his authority significantly. Calls for him to step down are getting louder and louder, but France’s constitution protects the president from being removed from office.

France will now face ending 2024 without a stable government or an approved budget for 2025. Constitutional provisions for temporary measures ensure that there will not be a government shutdown, but because the parliament lacks a consensus, more permanent solutions are hard to come by.

The interim prime minister who will be taking over will inherit the same problems to which Barnier fell victim: passing fundamental legislation amidst a divided parliament. Another parliamentary election cannot be held before July 2025, adding uncertainty to this scenario.

Implications for Europe

A new political crisis in France presents the European Union with already daunting challenges, not the least of which is Germany’s collapse of a grand coalition government. Added instability in France is anathema to the EU because it will have to meet with Donald Trump, president-elect of the United States of America, when he resumes the presidency in January.

Trump is planning a visit to Paris Saturday, when the renovated Notre Dame Cathedral will be unveiled, a ceremony that President Macron allegedly wants to attend along with the appointment of a new prime minister.

The political instability has started scaring investors. Just earlier in the week, France’s borrowing costs had temporarily eclipsed Greece, a country always viewed as a riskier investment. French stocks and bonds have also taken a toll because of the crisis.