Gaza War Death Toll Nears 40,000 Amid Ongoing Conflict and Credibility Debates

As the war in Gaza approaches its tenth month, the territory, administered by Hamas, faces the daunting task of counting its dead amidst widespread devastation. With the death toll nearing 40,000, the Gaza health ministry struggles to keep accurate records, and their reported figures have sparked controversy and scrutiny from international observers.

Israel and the United States have both questioned the accuracy of the daily death tolls reported by the Gaza health ministry. President Joe Biden expressed doubts early in the conflict, reflecting concerns about the reliability of the figures. Despite these questions, several United Nations agencies operating in Gaza have vouched for the credibility of the health ministry’s numbers. These figures are often referenced by international organizations monitoring the situation.

Recording the Dead

The process of recording deaths in Gaza involves identifying bodies through visual recognition by relatives or friends, or by recovering personal items. The health ministry’s database captures information such as name, gender, birth date, and ID number. For unidentifiable bodies, staff log deaths with available details and distinguishing marks, which may aid future identification efforts.

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The Gaza health ministry has outlined its methodology for death recording in multiple statements. Public hospitals under Hamas’s supervision promptly enter personal information into their databases, which is then relayed to the central registry. Private hospitals and clinics must submit death records within 24 hours for inclusion in the central database. The ministry’s information center verifies these entries to prevent duplicates or errors.

Public Reporting and Verification

Palestinian authorities encourage Gaza residents to report family deaths on a designated government website, facilitating the ministry’s verification process. The ministry is staffed by civil servants answering to both the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority and the Hamas-led government in Gaza.

Independent Investigations and Findings

Airways, an NGO studying the impact of war on civilians, conducted an investigation of 3,000 recorded deaths. Their analysis found a “high correlation” between the ministry’s data and civilian reports, with 75 percent of publicly reported names matching the ministry’s list. However, the accuracy of the ministry’s figures has reportedly declined as the conflict has damaged health infrastructure.

For example, southern Gaza’s Nasser Hospital, one of the few hospitals still partially operational, has only 50 functioning computers out of 400, according to its director Atef al-Hout.

Civilian and Combatant Casualties

Israeli authorities criticize the Gaza health ministry’s figures for not differentiating between combatants and civilians. Despite this, neither the Israeli army nor Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dispute the overall scale of the death toll. The Hamas government in Gaza estimates that nearly 70 percent of the approximately 40,000 dead are women (about 11,000) or children (at least 16,300).

UN and International Perspectives

Several UN agencies, including the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), have validated the ministry’s figures. UNRWA chief Philippe Lazzarini remarked in October that these figures have historically been credible and largely uncontested.

A study by the British medical journal The Lancet attributed 186,000 deaths to the war in Gaza, factoring in both direct casualties and those resulting from the ensuing humanitarian crisis.

Origins of the Conflict

The current war in Gaza was triggered by an attack by Hamas on October 7, which resulted in the deaths of 1,198 people, predominantly civilians, based on an AFP tally using Israeli official data. The ongoing conflict continues to exacerbate the humanitarian situation in Gaza, with both immediate and long-term consequences for its population.

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