Germany’s military intelligence has raised alarms over Russia’s strategic plans, indicating that the country is preparing for a large-scale war with NATO and European nations. Findings from a joint investigation by German news outlets, published on Thursday, suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin is laying the groundwork for a broader conflict beyond Ukraine.

Timeline for War Preparations

According to the report, Russia perceives its confrontation with the West as a long-term endeavor. The investigation asserts that Moscow aims to use military force to fulfill its imperial ambitions, with the 2022 invasion of Ukraine being merely the first phase in a broader campaign against Europe.

By the end of the decade, Russia is expected to have positioned itself for a major conventional war, as per findings from Germany’s Süddeutsche Zeitung, WDR, and NDR. While Russia’s Baltic neighbors remain skeptical of its immediate ability to wage war against NATO, Lithuania’s Special Service (VSD) believes Moscow could execute limited military actions against one or more NATO states.

Russia Testing NATO’s Commitment to Collective Defense

Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND) suspects that Putin is assessing NATO’s readiness to uphold its commitment under Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, which mandates collective defense in the event of an attack on any member state. According to German media outlet Bild, Russia is gauging how seriously NATO countries will respond in an emergency.

Currently, three-quarters of Russian soldiers and personnel typically stationed along the Baltic borders are engaged in Ukraine. However, German media reports indicate that Russia’s Air Force and Naval units remain on high combat alert. If the war in Ukraine concludes, these forces would likely be redeployed to bolster Russia’s strategic positioning along NATO borders.

Russia Military Expansion and Rising Defense Budget

Despite extensive Western sanctions, Russia has continued to build up its military, exceeding its immediate war requirements. The Kremlin has outlined plans to expand its armed forces to 1.5 million personnel by 2026—representing a 30% to 50% increase compared to the pre-Ukraine invasion figures from 2022.

Furthermore, Germany’s intelligence services have highlighted a significant surge in Russian military spending. In 2025, Russia’s defense budget is projected to reach €120 billion, accounting for more than 6% of its GDP. This marks a nearly fourfold increase from the country’s military budget in 2021.

NATO’s Warning

Last week, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte delivered a strong message to Moscow, vowing that the alliance would respond decisively should Russia attack Poland or any other NATO member. He further emphasized that once the Russia-Ukraine war ends, there will be no normalization of relations with the Kremlin.

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