Germany heads to polls on February 23 for a high-stakes federal election, triggered by the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition.
Germany is set to hold a federal election on February 23, a snap vote triggered by Chancellor Olaf Scholz after his coalition government collapsed late last year. This election will determine the composition of the Bundestag, Germany’s national parliament, and has attracted significant international attention—including from some of the world’s wealthiest individuals.
A range of political parties are contesting this election, spanning the ideological spectrum:
Left-wing parties: Die Linke (The Left) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD)
Center-left: The Greens
Liberal party: Free Democratic Party (FDP)
Center-right: Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU)
Far-right: Alternative for Germany (AfD)
A notable addition to this election is the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), which does not fit neatly into the traditional left-right divide. The BSW adopts leftist positions on social policies but is also strongly anti-migration and opposes sanctions against Russia, as well as military support for Ukraine.
Although the vote takes place on February 23, it will take several days to confirm the final results.
Based on exit polls, reliable results can be expected on election night, but there may still be some uncertainty.
The increasing trend of postal voting, coupled with the performance of smaller parties, could delay final confirmations. Three parties—Die Linke, FDP, and BSW—are currently polling near the crucial 5% threshold required to secure seats in the Bundestag. Their success or failure in surpassing this limit will significantly impact the overall distribution of parliamentary seats.
Additionally, a rule known as the basic mandate clause allows parties that win at least three districts to qualify for Bundestag representation, even if they fall below the 5% threshold. Die Linke is particularly banking on this rule to secure its place in parliament.
Current opinion polls indicate that the CDU/CSU is poised to win and emerge as the largest party in government. This would position Friedrich Merz as the next Chancellor of Germany.
No party is expected to secure an outright majority, making a coalition government inevitable. Germany’s political system is designed to prevent single-party rule, ensuring that multiple parties must collaborate to surpass the 50% majority mark in the Bundestag.
Historically, German governance has relied on coalitions. Even during the 1950s, when Konrad Adenauer had the option of forming a single-party government, he still chose a coalition. Unlike Nordic countries, Germany does not favor minority governments, viewing them as weak and unstable.
The preference for coalition governments stems from both political culture and Germany’s proportional voting system.
In the early 1980s, Germany typically had just three main parties—conservatives, social democrats, and liberals. Today, there are seven, reflecting an increasingly fractured political landscape.
Despite its growing support, the AfD is unlikely to be part of the next government due to the brandmauer (firewall)—an informal agreement among mainstream parties to exclude the far-right party from governing coalitions.
However, at the local and state levels—particularly in East Germany—some cooperation between the AfD and other parties has already taken place. The AfD hopes that these precedents will eventually open doors at the federal level.
While this election may not be as globally historic as the recent U.S. presidential race, it remains highly consequential for Germany’s future—particularly regarding the economy and migration policy.
However, the short notice for this election raises questions about voter turnout.
A key factor will be which parties can successfully mobilize non-voters, who have recently accounted for 25% to 30% of the electorate. The AfD has been particularly effective at energizing this group, especially younger voters. However, with older voters making up the majority, the outcome remains uncertain.
Also Read: German Election: Meet The Top Candidates And Their Key Priorities
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