In the wake of rising tensions in the Middle East, Gulf states are calling on the United States to intervene and prevent Israel from targeting Iran’s oil infrastructure. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Qatar have made it clear to Washington that they will not allow Israeli aircraft to fly over their airspace for any potential strikes against Iran. These concerns were raised during recent high-level discussions, where Gulf leaders expressed fear that such attacks could provoke retaliatory strikes on their own oil facilities by groups aligned with Iran.
Gulf States Firm on Airspace Refusal
Sources close to the Gulf governments revealed that Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Doha have explicitly informed the U.S. that they will deny Israel permission to use their airspace in any military action against Iran. A senior Gulf official noted, “The Gulf states aren’t letting Israel use their airspace. They won’t allow Israeli missiles to pass through, and there’s also a hope that they won’t strike the oil facilities.”
During talks this week, Iran made it clear that any assistance provided to Israel in attacking Iran could have severe consequences for the Kingdom’s oil infrastructure. A senior Iranian official warned Saudi Arabia that “if the Gulf states open up their airspace to Israel, that would be an act of war.”
Iranian Warnings to Saudi Arabia
Iran’s threats were further underscored in diplomatic channels, with Tehran cautioning Riyadh that its allies in Iraq and Yemen could retaliate if Israel receives any regional support. An Iranian diplomat confirmed the warning, stating, “If Israel gets help from any of the Gulf states, they should expect retaliation from our allies in Iraq and Yemen.”
These developments come amid broader regional tensions, with Iran trying to maintain a balance between military deterrence and diplomatic engagement. Notably, an Iranian visit to Riyadh and high-level discussions between Saudi and U.S. officials have centered on de-escalating tensions and handling the threat of further military escalation.
U.S. Role and Gulf Concerns
Sources in Washington acknowledged that Gulf officials have been in close contact with U.S. counterparts, expressing significant concern about the broader ramifications of an Israeli strike on Iranian energy assets. According to Jonathan Panikoff, a former U.S. intelligence officer now at the Atlantic Council, the Gulf states’ anxieties over the potential escalation are likely to be a central focus of diplomatic talks with Israeli officials. He stated, “The Gulf states’ anxiety is likely to be a key talking point with Israeli counterparts in trying to convince Israel to undertake a carefully calibrated response.”
Saudi Arabia, as the leader of OPEC, has sufficient spare oil production capacity to make up for any disruptions to Iranian oil exports. However, if Saudi Arabia or the UAE becomes a target in an Israeli retaliation, the consequences for global oil markets could be dire.
Potential Oil Infrastructure Threats
The vulnerability of Gulf oil infrastructure is a critical concern for these nations. The Gulf states are especially worried that any attack on their oil facilities by Iranian-backed groups in retaliation for Israeli strikes would severely disrupt global oil supplies. As one Gulf source put it, “Protecting oil sites is a major concern, and the goal remains to signal to Iran that the Gulf states do not pose a threat.”
U.S. Strategy: Sanctions Over Strikes
In light of these rising tensions, the U.S. has been attempting to dissuade Israel from targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure. President Joe Biden has warned Israel against attacking Iran’s oil assets, fearing that such an action could destabilize global energy markets. U.S. officials have suggested that rather than direct military strikes, Israel could impose economic sanctions on Iran or target specific military sites such as air bases and missile installations.
Sources close to the White House stated that the Biden administration is keen to prevent a broader military conflict, especially considering the volatile nature of the situation. “The U.S. is offering options like additional sanctions to give Israel a way out and avoid exacerbating the conflict,” said a person familiar with the situation.
Tensions Within Israeli Politics
Despite U.S. pressure, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under significant pressure from hardliners within his coalition to take a more aggressive stance against Iran. While the Biden administration has provided Netanyahu with diplomatic options, including sanctions, it remains uncertain whether Netanyahu will accept these proposals.
On the other hand, Israeli Security Minister Yoav Gallant recently stated, “Our attack on Iran will be deadly, precise, and above all surprising. They will not understand what happened and how it happened. They will see the results.” Gallant’s comments signal Israel’s readiness to strike, although the nature and timing of any attack remain uncertain.
The Broader Geopolitical Context
The dynamics in the Middle East have grown increasingly complex with recent developments. Despite efforts at Saudi-Iranian reconciliation, U.S. military presence in the region remains significant, particularly as concerns over oil security persist. Yemen’s Ansar Allah, for instance, has already launched missile attacks on the UAE’s oil facilities, further complicating the geopolitical landscape.
As the situation continues to evolve, the broader implications for energy security, regional stability, and U.S.-Israeli relations will remain critical factors in determining the course of events. The coming weeks may see further diplomatic efforts aimed at de-escalating tensions, but the risk of conflict remains high, particularly if Israel moves forward with strikes on Iranian territory.
(INCLUDES INPUTS FROM ONLINE SOURCES)
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