Despite a widely perceived victory by Kamala Harris in Tuesday’s debate, recent polling indicates minimal movement in the US Presidential race. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, Harris gained roughly a point, bringing her national lead to 47-42. Similarly, a Morning Consult survey shows her at 50-45, also up by a point from before the debate. However, experts note that Harris has made only a marginal impact in the crucial battleground states that will determine the election outcome.
Candidates Resume Campaigning
Both candidates returned to the campaign trail on Thursday. Harris, buoyed by positive reviews of her debate performance, spoke at a rally in North Carolina—a key battleground state. Despite her renewed energy, Harris cautioned that she remains the underdog and emphasized the ongoing work required to secure a victory. In contrast, Trump has projected confidence, suggesting his victory is virtually assured.
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Polling Concerns
Part of Harris’ cautious approach stems from historical patterns where Trump tends to outperform his poll numbers. This phenomenon was evident in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, with Trump supporters often reluctant to share their voting intentions. The tight race in 2024, particularly in battleground states, has led many pollsters—regardless of their political affiliations—to be cautious about underestimating Trump’s potential.
Debate Performance and Rematch Requests
The debate performance verdict is clearer, with even some Republican-leaning voters acknowledging Trump’s underwhelming performance. This has led the Harris campaign to push for another debate. Trump, however, rejected this request on Thursday, asserting his victory in the debate. “When a prizefighter loses a fight, the first words out of his mouth are, ‘I WANT A REMATCH.’ Polls clearly show that I won the Debate against Comrade Kamala Harris… and she immediately called for a Second Debate,” Trump stated, which prompted accusations of cowardice from Harris supporters.
Trump’s Continued Controversies
Trump’s MAGA supporters have reacted to his debate performance with a series of conspiracy theories, including claims that one of the debate moderators was biased and that Harris received advance questions through covert means. Trump himself has criticized ABC News’ moderators, labeling them “nasty and rude” for their perceived bias. Meanwhile, Trump has continued his controversial rhetoric, including allegations about illegal immigrants engaging in bizarre activities, despite advice from some supporters to focus on policy issues where Harris might be more vulnerable.
Union Endorsements and Election Dynamics
As the November 5 election approaches, both campaigns are closely watching union endorsements. Democrats are wary of the Fraternal Order of Police endorsing Trump, while MAGA Republicans are concerned about the National Association of Letter Carriers (NALC) supporting Harris. Both unions, representing around 300,000 members each, will play a significant role in the election, particularly with the increased reliance on mail-in voting.
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