In a significant shift in the 2024 presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris has taken the lead over former President Donald Trump in three key battleground states, according to new polls released on Saturday. This development marks a reversal from the advantage Trump had maintained over the past year in these states.
The polls, conducted by The New York Times and Siena College, reveal Harris leading Trump by a consistent margin of 50 percent to 46 percent in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states, with their large electoral vote counts, are crucial for securing a victory under the U.S. electoral college system.
This recent polling data contrasts sharply with earlier surveys over the past year that showed Trump either tied with or slightly ahead of Democratic President Joe Biden. However, Biden, who dropped out of the race last month, has endorsed Harris, which has likely contributed to her rising numbers.
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As the November 5 election approaches, there is still ample time for changes in voter sentiment. The latest polls indicate that while voters still prefer Trump on key issues such as the economy and immigration, Harris holds a commanding 24-point lead on the issue of abortion.
Democrats are buoyed by Harris’s recent surge in favorability, which has been fueled by her dynamic campaign activities and her selection of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. This choice seems to have invigorated Democratic support following Biden’s departure from the race.
The Harris-Walz ticket has notably curtailed Trump’s post-July 13 surge in support, which followed an assassination attempt on Trump and a successful national Republican convention. Harris has seen a notable increase in favorability, with a 10-point rise among registered voters in Pennsylvania alone over the past month, according to the Times/Siena polling.
Voters perceive Harris as more intelligent and possessing a better temperament for governance compared to Trump. This perception has bolstered her position in the polls, as she and Walz continue to campaign vigorously across swing states.
The new polls also highlight a significant increase in voter satisfaction among Democrats, up by 27 points in the three battleground states since May. This is a notable turnaround from three months ago, when Republicans expressed higher levels of satisfaction with their candidates.
The surveys, which included at least 600 voters in each state, were conducted between August 5 and 9, capturing a snapshot of the shifting political landscape as the election draws near.
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