As tensions escalate in the Middle East, Iran is preparing its armed forces for potential conflict with Israel while simultaneously striving to avoid war. Recent developments have prompted Iranian officials to outline military strategies in response to any Israeli attacks, particularly after a barrage of missiles targeted Israel earlier this month.
Four Iranian officials revealed that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has instructed the military to develop multiple plans to counter an Israeli offensive. The nature of Iran’s retaliation will depend on the scale and severity of any strikes from Israel. The officials emphasized that if Israeli actions lead to significant damage and casualties, Iran would respond decisively. However, if the strikes are limited to military targets, Iran may choose to exercise restraint.
Khamenei’s directive indicates that specific thresholds will trigger Iranian responses. Attacks on critical oil and energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, or targeted assassinations of senior Iranian officials would provoke a military reaction. This cautious approach reflects Iran’s awareness of the devastating impacts witnessed by its allies in the region, particularly in Lebanon and Gaza.
A Measured Response Strategy
Iranian officials are contemplating various responses, including a potential barrage of up to 1,000 ballistic missiles and intensified assaults by Iranian proxy groups in the region. Additionally, they might disrupt global energy supplies and shipping routes through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. While the Iranian government maintains a public stance of seeking peace, any significant Israeli military action would present a substantial challenge for Iranian leaders who cannot appear weak or vulnerable.
Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, stated, “In the event of an Israeli attack, the shape of our response will be proportionate and calculated.” His comments underscore the delicate balance Iran aims to strike between asserting its military capabilities and avoiding a full-scale war.
Regional Dynamics And Diplomatic Efforts
The stakes are high for both Iran and the broader Middle East. A direct conflict between Iran and Israel could further destabilize the region, jeopardizing ceasefire efforts in Gaza and Lebanon while potentially drawing the United States into military action in support of Israel. In light of this, Iran has been working to solidify alliances with regional Arab nations, cautioning them that any cooperation with Israel in an attack would make them targets.
Araghchi, at a recent press conference in Kuwait, expressed optimism that neighboring countries would prevent Israeli jets from utilizing their airspace or refueling at their bases during any potential assault on Iran.
Divergent Perspectives Within Iran
In recent weeks, Iranian officials have publicly expressed varying views regarding how to confront the threat posed by Israel. While President Masoud Pezeshkian and Araghchi have promised retaliation, some military leaders have dismissed the possibility of major Israeli attacks as insignificant. A senior commander, however, warned of a more aggressive stance against Israeli forces.
Political analyst Nasser Imani remarked, “The thinking now is that if Israel’s attack is symbolic and limited, we ought to let go and end the ping pong of attacks.” This sentiment reflects Iran’s desire to avoid a protracted conflict that could hinder its negotiations with Western powers and impact its struggling economy.
The Underlying Threat
Iran has not faced such a considerable external threat since the end of the Iran-Iraq War over three decades ago. Although the two countries have been engaged in a covert conflict across various domains, a direct military confrontation with Israeli forces represents a new level of danger for Iran. Analysts warn that the country is at a disadvantage militarily, having escalated tensions to a point where it faces Israel’s superior military capabilities.
In anticipation of a potential Israeli retaliation, Iran has placed its armed forces on high alert, enhancing air defenses around sensitive military and nuclear sites. Senior generals who previously commanded battalions in Iraq and Syria have been deployed to border regions, addressing concerns that militant groups might exploit the situation to instigate unrest.
The Internal Impact Of Escalating Tensions
On the streets of Tehran, public sentiment is mixed. Propaganda murals threatening Israel are visible, but many residents express anxiety about the prospect of war. Young people, like 21-year-old Assal, have voiced their uncertainty about government communication regarding potential military actions. “We know nothing; we are kept in the dark,” she lamented.
Economically, Iran is already feeling the pressure, with the rial depreciating against the dollar and gold prices soaring. The government has restricted civilian drone use, and foreign airlines have suspended flights, adding to the sense of crisis.
Support for a war against Israel appears limited to fervent ideological supporters, while the general populace, weary of economic hardships, expresses reluctance to engage in conflicts that do not directly benefit Iran. Raika, a 47-year-old artist, voiced a common sentiment: “I do not want us to get involved in other countries’ wars. I do not want to die for something that has nothing to do with my country and my people.”
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